probably dont forget the 10 year plan :D

Games always determine when new consoles are launched. When developers start to want to develop games leagues beyond the capabilities of the current consoles to play you will either see one of the current three console makers release a new console or see new companies try to release game consoles much as there was in the waning years of SNES and Genesis when it was clear that those consoles were becoming obsolete and companies like 3DO, CD-I, and the Atari Jaguar tried to enter the market with consoles with more advanced tech to play more advanced games.

But the world ends in 2012... :(

Have you been reading the bible to much :) lol

Good

I have put too much money into my consoles already.

I want to enjoy them for a while

Mayan calender. The bible says we don't know the time the end will come, why would it come on 2012? That's too predictable for a character like Yahweh.

2013 sounds about right. Each generation typically lasts something like 8 years

      Most generations last about 4 to 6 years (SNES 1991 to 1995, PS1 1995 to 2000, PS2 2000 to 2005).  It is very atypical for consoles to last longer than that and the only three that have are the Atari 2600, NES, and PS2.  I often think of it this way to keep up with the latest advances in PC games you need to get a new computer every two years to keep the games running at their highest settings and, thankfully, for consoles it's every four years.

This gen is still in its infancy. A new generation of consoles would be rediculous when non of the curent consoles has been anywhere close to being used to their potential.

note this was originally put together long before patcher spoke (first posting was around summer 08), and it piss me off he agrees, but here is why this time he might not be full of shit


ive said this many times if any of them release before 2012 there will be backlash that would most likely lead to a crash this will not only come from the general buying public, but devs, whos asset libraries will be devalued. it would not be good for the industry right now.

we are in actually a pretty good place for all three with software sales being what they are sometime this year all three should put up proffits and continue to do so till the end of the generation.

other things that work against the launch are the recession. the slide of the euro and most world monies against the yen.

on top of that there currently on going major revisions in board and ram design the like of which havent been seen since the mid 90s, this shift should be more defined by 2012 with techs less risky. it also gives time for ISPs to be upgraded and allow for smoother download of full games which is something devs want to kill the resale market (though rental of the game from a download is most likely a devs wet dream rentals on music and games make fortunes)

honestly the only one that could benifit from ending early is nintendo, since they have traditionaly made a profit out of the gate, making people upgrade would just be more cash for them, but killing a cash cow (the wii) is always dangerous. especially a cash cow they are just convincing third parties to try again, killing could harm the next console