But I thought Nintendo was supposed to release the Wii HD well before that (according to Pachter) ...

Realistically, I think it is safe to assume we won't see a new home console in 2009 or 2010 because one hasn't been announced, there are no (reasonable) rumors about one, and it takes 18 months to ramp-up to the release of a home console (where it is nearly impossible to keep one secret). Beyond that, I think it is possible that we could see the first new console from these manufacturers as early as the middle of 2011, or as late as end of 2012.

should be 2015

I believe MS will release the Xbox 3 in Nov 2011. They would prefer to have this gen one year longer and release in 2012, but they won't risk launching at the same time as Sony. Because Sony might very well aim for Nov 2012, not only because that's six years after PS3, but for strategical reasons they don't want to be too late this time.

So both would prefer this gen to be longer than past generations for profitability reasons, but the competition and fear of being left behind will force them both to launch in usual time (six years between gens).

Xbox 3 mid nov 2011
NeWii late nov 2011
PS4 late mar 2012

I still don't get it why people believe that the currently slowest selling console, with the most obvious YoY decrease, will be able to stay in the market significantly longer than its competition.

Because Sony says so? They might keep it on the market, but if the decrease continues, it will reach ridiculously low sales in 1-2 years.
And it will continue. Price cuts might help for a month, to get those who were waiting for it, ut it won't generate interest in a console.

10 year cycle doesn't neccessarily mean that they won't realease a new console after 10 years. What they mean is they will keep supporting the PS3 until it runs out of juice. Just like the PS2, games are still coming out from the system (Motorstorm, Madden and etc). Let's say you are a madden fan or a FIFA or a NBA live or whatever. You can still play those game even though PS4 will come out. Although I agree with you, that's called marketing so I want them to keep that promise because it will beneficial for the less fortunate gamers. I also think that microsoft will keep supporting the 360 even if the 720 or whatever they will call their next system comes out.

My money is on 2012 if we are still alive.

Ya I believe that

Soooooo. Patcher thinks Nintendo will release a new console soon (despite the Wii is stomping the other guys) and that Sony and Microsoft will wait? Does he even believe himself anymore. Also......


"We do not expect the 'next' generation to begin before 2013, if at all. We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalize on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle."

That's not how it works. Consoles are released as software and hardware sales slump (like they are for the PS3 and 360). Publishers only follow the trend. The only time they resist is when there is a console that still has momentum, like, I don't know, the Wii.