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I believe MS will release the Xbox 3 in Nov 2011. They would prefer to have this gen one year longer and release in 2012, but they won't risk launching at the same time as Sony. Because Sony might very well aim for Nov 2012, not only because that's six years after PS3, but for strategical reasons they don't want to be too late this time.

So both would prefer this gen to be longer than past generations for profitability reasons, but the competition and fear of being left behind will force them both to launch in usual time (six years between gens).