note this was originally put together long before patcher spoke (first posting was around summer 08), and it piss me off he agrees, but here is why this time he might not be full of shit
ive said this many times if any of them release before 2012 there will be backlash that would most likely lead to a crash this will not only come from the general buying public, but devs, whos asset libraries will be devalued. it would not be good for the industry right now.
we are in actually a pretty good place for all three with software sales being what they are sometime this year all three should put up proffits and continue to do so till the end of the generation.
other things that work against the launch are the recession. the slide of the euro and most world monies against the yen.
on top of that there currently on going major revisions in board and ram design the like of which havent been seen since the mid 90s, this shift should be more defined by 2012 with techs less risky. it also gives time for ISPs to be upgraded and allow for smoother download of full games which is something devs want to kill the resale market (though rental of the game from a download is most likely a devs wet dream rentals on music and games make fortunes)
honestly the only one that could benifit from ending early is nintendo, since they have traditionaly made a profit out of the gate, making people upgrade would just be more cash for them, but killing a cash cow (the wii) is always dangerous. especially a cash cow they are just convincing third parties to try again, killing could harm the next console
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