My bet is 2012.

It's impossible for an Xbox 3 to come out already in 2010. Nov 2011 is the earliest possible time.

I'll eyeball it tomorrow - time for beer now!

 I agree with this

I really don't want to see any 8th gen consoles anytime soon...

ive said this many times if any of them release before 2012 there will be backlash that would most likely lead to a crash this will not only come from the general buying public, but devs, whos asset libraries will be devalued. it would not be good for the industry right now.

we are in actually a pretty good place for all three with software sales being what they are sometime this year all three should put up proffits and continue to do so till the end of the generation.

other things that work against the launch are the recession. the slide of the euro and most world monies against the yen.

on top of that there currently on going major revisions in board and ram design the like of which havent been seen since the mid 90s, this shift should be more defined by 2012 with techs less risky. it also gives time for ISPs to be upgraded and allow for smoother download of full games which is something devs want to kill the resale market (though rental of the game from a download is most likely a devs wet dream rentals on music and games make fortunes)

honestly the only one that could benifit from ending early is nintendo, since they have traditionaly made a profit out of the gate, making people upgrade would just be more cash for them, but killing a cash cow (the wii) is always dangerous. especially a cash cow they are just convincing third parties to try again, killing could harm the next console

      The 360's biggest spikes were in the fall of '07 when Mass Effect, The Orange Box, Call of Duty 4, Assassin's Creed, and Halo 3 were released.  Then again last year when Gears 2 and Fable II came out (even though unlike in 2007 most of their other games from 2008 turned out to be huge disappointments Ninja Gaiden II, Too Human, both Fable II and Gears II to an extent, yet they did manage a spike after the aforementioned two games were released combined with two big price cuts that went into effect in '08).

      However, they don't really have much of anything big for '09.  Of the $59.99 system sellers, they don't have any exclusives that are likely to get more than an 8.5 in reviews, so the only big pops they will get will be from multiplat games like CoD4 part 2. 

Microsoft said earlier this year that their mission with the 360 had been accomplished. They've said they are going to have a transformational E3 (which I suspect is part of their showing at E3 will have something to do with the new xbox), Blizzard said they were talking to Microsoft about the next xbox at GDC 2009, and they've hired some guy from Sun Microsystems that some people think is a move towards development of the next xbox.

this is making me physically sick posting this, but here are patchers thoughts. He agrees with me which makes me sick, but note, I had this idea, and its been posted with just a bit of modification since the end of last summer, so i saw this coming before this jackass i do not trust said it. I do feel he is right this time though I say 2012 to his 2013 at earliest :


Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter doesn’t expect a new hardware cycle to begin before 2013.

“We do not expect a “new” console in 2010 (other than the long-rumoured high definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology),” he wrote in an industry newsletter.

“We do not expect the ‘next’ generation to begin before 2013, if at all,” he added.

“We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalise on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle.

“We therefore think it is likely that the ‘next’ generation will begin after 2013, meaning that software sales are likely to grow by a compounded annual rate of 6–10 percent for another five years.

“Because R&D costs are likely to flatten out with the benefits of a learning curve, we expect earnings leverage as the publishers are able to exploit R&D investments. In brief, we think that investors have it wrong so far this cycle, and think that investment in video game publishers will bear fruit for many years.”

Earlier this week Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot said the publisher was already preparing for the next generation of consoles, which he expects to launch in the next few years.

"We need to get ready for the future generation of consoles," he said. "In the next few years, there will be new home and handheld consoles, and if you don't invest... you will not be able to cope with both [the existing and new generation consoles].”



http://www.edge-online.com/news/analyst-no-new-console-cycle-before-2013

360 is here to stay since it is selling well. I won't see new one before 2012 unless PS4 is early this time. Plus I only played 1/3 of the good games out there.