I think a $100 drop per year is a reasonable expectation. So:
2006-2007: $600
2007-2008: $500
2008-2009: $400
2009-2010: $300
2010-2011: $200

I can't see anything that would STOP Sony from slowly cutting prices, though intense competition or total collapse/clearancesale could push it faster.

Funny how people expect Sony to drop $100 per year. There's a limit on how much loses they are willing to swallow.

leo-j said: DEC 07:$499.99 DEC 08:$399.99 DEC 09:$299.99

 Wrong actuall, a Sony guy confirmed it (one of the higher ups in SCEI) 

60GB runs out: $499 80GB

March 2008: $399 80GB $499 100GB plausible

Nov. 2008: $349 80GB discontinued, $449 100GB?

 He was guessing on the 100GB model and the Nov. 2008 one but the 80 at $399 has been confirmed.

Guys, $100 price drop a year is not reasonable =P

Here is the US Price History of the PS2 from Wikipedia...

* US$299.99 (October 26, 2000, release date) (CAD$449.99)
* US$199.99 (May 14, 2002) (CAD$299.99)
* US$179.99 (May 13, 2003, "temporary" pricing) (CAD$249.99)[1]
* US$179.99 (August 18, 2003, official pricing)[2]
* US$149.99 (May 11, 2004) (CAD$179.99)
* US$129.99 (April 20, 2006) (CAD$139.99)

-18 months to cut $100
- another 7 months for a $20 unofficial cut which was made official 3 months later
- another 11 months for a $30 price cut
- and finally another 23 months for a $20 price cut.

Summary Points
- 28 months (2 years 4 months) - Total Cuts - $120
- 39 months (3 years 3 months) - Total Cuts - $150
- 62 months (5 years 2 months) - Total Cuts - $170

If we look at this and understand the PS3 won't follow the same path but it will follow the general path it's reasonable to expect the PS3 to be $260 in January of 2012.

Sqrl said: Guys, $100 price drop a year is not reasonable =P Here is the US Price History of the PS2 from Wikipedia... * US$299.99 (October 26, 2000, release date) (CAD$449.99) * US$199.99 (May 14, 2002) (CAD$299.99) * US$179.99 (May 13, 2003, "temporary" pricing) (CAD$249.99)[1] * US$179.99 (August 18, 2003, official pricing)[2] * US$149.99 (May 11, 2004) (CAD$179.99) * US$129.99 (April 20, 2006) (CAD$139.99) -18 months to cut $100 - another 7 months for a $20 unofficial cut which was made official 3 months later - another 11 months for a $30 price cut - and finally another 23 months for a $20 price cut. Summary Points - 28 months (2 years 4 months) - Total Cuts - $120 - 39 months (3 years 3 months) - Total Cuts - $150 - 62 months (5 years 2 months) - Total Cuts - $170 If we look at this and understand the PS3 won't follow the same path but it will follow the general path it's reasonable to expect the PS3 to be $260 in January of 2012.

What does a wildly successful console (PS2) that started at $300 have to do with the 3rd place console (PS3) that started at $600? They aren't even in the same ballpark.

Compare, for example, the GameCube. The price had been halved ($199 to $99) before 2 years was up. Is it inconceivable that PS3's price would be halved by 2 years (2008) to $299?

The price to manufacture the PS3 will keep going down and down every month. Just because PS3 has more DOLLARS to go down doesn't mean anything really. Obviously the mass market is speaking: PS3 is not worth it at this price.

Also, there hasn't even BEEN a PS3 price cut. The price remains $499/$599. LOL.

@Sqrl - But the PS2 didn't need price cuts fast because it was so successful off the bat... Just like the Wii, although could have a price cut, it will not get one because it is so successful. Now the GC dropped a lot faster then that because of poor sales, just like the PS3 will need to drop a lot faster then usual.

I am wondering when the NEXT GEN will begin it's showing? From 2000 it took 5 years before the next consoles were being launched - (Xbox 360). So from 2005 - 2010 (5 years) we should at least be seeing the announcements of the Next Gen consoles. By that time, IF the PS3 is not sub $200, it'll totally bomb. (My Opinion anyway). If it is lower then $200, then I'll more then likely be purchasing one.

ssj12 said: leo-j said: DEC 07:$499.99 DEC 08:$399.99 DEC 09:$299.99  Wrong actuall, a Sony guy confirmed it (one of the higher ups in SCEI)  60GB runs out: $499 80GB March 2008: $399 80GB $499 100GB plausible Nov. 2008: $349 80GB discontinued, $449 100GB?  He was guessing on the 100GB model and the Nov. 2008 one but the 80 at $399 has been confirmed.

 Link or it didn't happen

@z64dan & Magera,

The comparisons are more valid than you think. The real important factors in price cuts are "Can we sell more units while making more $ at a lower price point?" and Component costs.

Looking at the two Consoles the closest console design to the PS2 is the PS3. The only difference is that the PS3's abnormal architecture is an extension of the PS2's abnormal architecture. As a result we can expect component costs to go down at similar rates.

Now on the second point, if you will notice I based my estimate entirely on the final price cut for the specific reason that the early portions of each console life aren't comparable due to high sellthroughs on the PS2. However the the last two price cuts the PS2 recieved were a direct result of reducing production costs which means it had come back in line with that model making it a valid comparison point.

In effect, the similarities in architecture mean its production costs will drop similarly with respect to time, and by looking only at the most recent price cuts we are looking at the length of time it took for the production costs of the PS2 to be lowered.  So what we really have is the information that over the course of the PS2s life it took 62 months to reduce production costs enough to warrant $170 worth of price cuts.  Because I am only looking at the end total where the model has come back in line the comparison works fine.

If anything a very good case could be made for my estimate being on the low side considering the PS3 was being sold for a loss initially.  But more than that the PS2s high sales also provide incentive for sony to find a way to lower their costs so they are making more money per unit they are selling and providing them the future price cut options.  So really if anything my estimate is a low one.

Eventually Sony will have to decide which is more important: Selling games or just licensing Blu-ray movies. They could probably continue down the same path with PS3 (Only selling 5 million/year) and it would be the #1 movie format.

But it would be the #3 game format, and it won't get any good exclusives. And then they will be in a horrible position for PS4.

Why am I not surprised??