How did the industry Analysts get it so wrong!!!

Viper1

Currently Offline

28,222

8132 posts since 28/07/07

Recent Badges:

50 in One Add a total of 50 games to your collection.
Congratulations on Pressing Start! Score your first game in your collection.
9 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 9 years.
7 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 7 years.
Genocide 5,000 posts on the gamrConnect forums.
16 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 16 years.

Viper1 on 12 September 2007

Here is a compilation of analyst predictions last updated in May.

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=16280

Strategy Analytics [Jul-05] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)
Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)
Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)
Total - 198.6 million

Kagan Research (U.S. Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 56.5%
Xbox 360 - 28.5%
Nintendo Wii - 15%

Piper Jaffray (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.6 million (48.3%)
Sony PS3 - 15.5 million (38.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 5.5 million (13.5%)
Total - 40.6 million

Citigroup (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.8 million
Sony PS3 - 11.0 million

UBS [Jan-06] (U.S. Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 23 million (43%)
Xbox 360 - 20 million (38%)
Nintendo Wii - 10 million (19%)
Total - 53 million

Friedman Billings Ramsey (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 24.6 million (40.7%)
Sony PS3 - 23.3 million (38.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 12.5 million (20.7%)
Total - 60.4 million

In-Stat (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 50%
Xbox 360 - 28.6%
Nintendo Wii - 21.2%

Wedbush Morgan Securities (U.S. and Europe Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 45%
Xbox 360 - 35%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 47%
Sony PS3 - 33%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

IDG (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 15.5 million (43.3%)
Sony PS3 - 13.5 million (37.7%)
Nintendo Wii - 6.8 million (19.0%)
Total - 35.8 million

P.J. McNealy (Worldwide Through 2007)
Xbox 360 - 21 to 23 million
Sony PS3 - 13 to 16 million
Nintendo Wii - 12 to 14 million

Yankee Group (North America Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 30 million (44%)
Xbox 360 - 27 million (40%)
Nintendo Wii - 11 million (16%)
Total - 68 million

Nomura Securities (Worldwide Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 71 million
Nintendo Wii - 40 million

Enterbrain / Famitsu (Worldwide Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 34 million (39.1%)
Xbox 360 - 28 million (32.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (28.7%)
Total - 87 million

IDG (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 23.9 million (39.2%)
Sony PS3 - 23.5 million (38.5%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.6 million (22.3%)
Total - 61 million

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through March 2011)
Xbox 360 - 39%
Sony PS3 - 34%
Nintendo Wii - 27%

Strategy Analytics [Nov-06] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (59.47%)
Xbox 360 - 59.7 million (29.15%)
Nintendo Wii - 23.3 million (11.38%)
Total - 204.8 million

SFG Research (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 29.4 million (43.8%)
Sony PS3 - 24.2 million (36.1%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.5 million (20.1%)
Total - 67.1 million

SFG Research (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 62 million (46.6%)
Xbox 360 - 46 million (34.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (18.8%)
Total - 133 million

Screen Digest (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 42%
Sony PS3 - 38%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Screen Digest (Japan Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 64%
Nintendo Wii - 25%
Xbox 360 - 11%

IDC (Worldwide Through 2008)
Nintendo Wii - 32.1 million (37%)
Xbox 360 - 30.4 million (35%)
Sony PS3 - 24.5 million (28%)
Total - 87 million

UBS [May-07] (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 22 million (35.5%)
Sony PS3 - 21 million (33.9%)
Nintendo Wii - 19 million (30.6%)
Tolal - 62 million

---
For perspective, you can compare to actual shipments of the previous generation.

Worldwide Hardware Shipments (End of 2003)
PS2 - 69.46 million (71.53%)
Xbox - 13.7 million (14.11%)
GameCube - 13.94 million (14.36%)
Total - 97.1 million

Worldwide Hardware Shipments (End of 2004)
PS2 - 81.39 million (68.21%)
Xbox - 19.90 million (16.68%)
GameCube - 18.03 million (15.11%)
Total - 119.32 million

Worldwide Hardware Shipments (End of 2005)
PS2 - 101.37 million (69.44%)
Xbox - 24 million (16.44%)
GameCube - 20.61 million (14.12%)
Total - 145.98 million

IDC is the only one to pick Wii above 3rd place and Citigroup didn't even include Wii in the predictions at all.

The rEVOLution is not being televised

mancandy

Currently Offline

1,343

1079 posts since 09/02/07

Recent Badges:

15 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 15 years.
So You Came Back For More, Huh? Logged in a second time.
Site Veteran Has been a VGChartz member for over 5 years.
9 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 9 years.
Littlest Genocide 1,000 posts on the gamrConnect forums.
4 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 4 years.

mancandy on 12 September 2007

The videogame industry is very hard to predict. There are so many factors that make this industry unique from any another. There are only three console makers, they changed from time to time, the industry is very young, etc. But it appears that these analysts just used historical data from the past 2 generations to make their forcasts.

It doesn't seem that the analysts used any other factors that may change the outcome of this generation. For instance, they didn't think the price would be a deterant, nor Nintendo's new controller to be a huge selling point. They simply looked at what happened in recent history and went along with it. They didn't go to E3 and see the 5 hour lines to try out the Wii. They didn't look at polls to see who would spend $600 for a console. They probably don't even play videogames. They missed a lot of important factors when making their predictions.

Wii Code 8761-5941-4718-0078

sharky

Banned

780

428 posts since 12/01/07

Recent Badges:

Leaving Limbo 100 posts on the gamrConnect forums.
Trust Me, It'll Have Legs 100 replies made to user's most popular thread.
Hit And Run 15 comments posted on VGChartz news articles.

sharky on 12 September 2007

Who's to say they're wrong? Still four years to go..

Viper1

Currently Offline

28,222

8132 posts since 28/07/07

Recent Badges:

50 in One Add a total of 50 games to your collection.
12 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 12 years.
Pata 100 wall post comments made on gamrConnect.
'Ello Princess! Awarded for signing up.
Site Veteran Has been a VGChartz member for over 5 years.
Open For Business Earned 10 badges.

Viper1 on 12 September 2007

sharky said:
Who's to say they're wrong? Still four years to go..

Strategy Analytics [Jul-05] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)
Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)
Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)
Total - 198.6 million

Piper Jaffray (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.6 million (48.3%)
Sony PS3 - 15.5 million (38.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 5.5 million (13.5%)
Total - 40.6 million

IDG (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 15.5 million (43.3%)
Sony PS3 - 13.5 million (37.7%)
Nintendo Wii - 6.8 million (19.0%)
Total - 35.8 million

P.J. McNealy (Worldwide Through 2007)
Xbox 360 - 21 to 23 million
Sony PS3 - 13 to 16 million
Nintendo Wii - 12 to 14 million

You want to put down any money that these guy will be right?

The rEVOLution is not being televised

mancandy

Currently Offline

1,343

1079 posts since 09/02/07

Recent Badges:

Mirror Image Awarded for uploading an avatar.
Littlest Genocide 1,000 posts on the gamrConnect forums.
2 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 2 years.
6 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 6 years.
14 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 14 years.
16 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 16 years.

mancandy on 12 September 2007

sharky said:
Who's to say they're wrong? Still four years to go..

Someone is not paying attention. Are you an analyst?

Wii Code 8761-5941-4718-0078

redspear

Currently Offline

1,171

958 posts since 15/04/07

Recent Badges:

11 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 11 years.
12 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 12 years.
2 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 2 years.
14 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 14 years.
17 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 17 years.
Making Friends 10 friends on gamrConnect.

redspear on 12 September 2007

johnlucas said:

twesterm said:
Nintendo caught everyone with their pants down. They took a huge risk that could have really hurt them or got them where they are today. At first glance, it was the obvious choice to say anyone who takes a step back graphic power wise in a graphic driven industry would obviously spell doom but Nintendo knew exactly what they were doing and it's showing.

They didn't catch me with my pants down. I knew this was gonna happen all along.

Me from 2005: Future of Next-Generation of Gaming

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=3254

The only thing wrong in this prediction was not accounting for Sony's self-sabotage. I'll have to make a note of that in future generation predictions. You learn something new everyday.

This was done before any 7th gen system launched by the way.

John Lucas

Yup John I remember your posts on Joystiq. In fact you and Dolla Dolla were both regulars there so was in fact but I usually posted in different threads then you guys only occasionally popping up to respond to a troll like King off Whales or something.

I called the DS before it was ever released on Spong back in 2004 I cna't find those message boards now.

However as soon as I find them will post them here. The Wii I also called early but was basing that off the DS

fkusumot

Currently Offline

8,101

5275 posts since 07/07/07

Recent Badges:

One Of A Kind 1,000 replies made to user's most popular thread.
Social Butterfly 50 friends on gamrConnect.
The Nuts & Bolts Add a total of 25 games to your collection.
50 in One Add a total of 50 games to your collection.
13 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 13 years.
10 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 10 years.

fkusumot on 12 September 2007

sharky said:
Who's to say they're wrong? Still four years to go..

Who is the "they" that you are referring to? Did you read the list or are you referring to a "they're" from some different post? Most of those predictions only have one, two or three years to go. One prediction only has three months.

I Blame Wii Fit!

steven787

Currently Offline

7,258

5635 posts since 05/06/07

Recent Badges:

It's a Start Bank a Total of 2,000 VG$.
Quite a Comeback Enter your first Prediction League event.
13 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 13 years.
One Small 'Splosion Author of 100 forum threads.
'Ello Princess! Awarded for signing up.
Thumbs Up Receive an Upvote on One of Your User Reviews.

steven787 on 12 September 2007

It's because in the board rooms and analyst discussion panels you have a bunch of single guys who don't play video games, make over 100k a year, have horrible family lives (see: mitresses and escorts), suffer from alcoholism, get propped up by a degree from a school that is exclusive (like the one I goto, gosh I hate my peers) while never having to worry about money their whole lives.

Much of the time, people get promoted and listened to for all the wrong reasons. Hell the Wii is out selling everything else and analysts and publishers still don't get it.

I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

dgm6780

Banned

1,610

664 posts since 14/03/07

Recent Badges:

Hit And Run 15 comments posted on VGChartz news articles.
The Nuts & Bolts Add a total of 25 games to your collection.
50 in One Add a total of 50 games to your collection.
Leaving Limbo 100 posts on the gamrConnect forums.
Mirror Image Awarded for uploading an avatar.
Quite a Comeback Enter your first Prediction League event.

dgm6780 on 12 September 2007

these forcasts are for 5 and 6 years away. Nintendo hasnt won yet. You gotta wait for this wii fad to wear off. Only so many grandma's, physical therapy clinics, soccer moms, and people who just got to have the latest fad will be buying Wii's. The wii wont have a 5-6 year lifespan, much less a 9-10 year lifespan the ps3 will have.