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Forums - Sales Discussion - How did the industry Analysts get it so wrong!!!

W29 on 12 September 2007
d21lewis said:
I think Nintendo's mistake of sticking with cartridges during the N64 era, and the "Purple Lunchbox" Gamecube image made the industry analists think that Nintendo didn't know what gamers wanted anymore. They seemed to forget that Nintendo was the company thay created the controller, standardised the analog stick, and force feedback in home consoles. The guys have been in the buisness for decades. They knew what they were doing.

At the same time, they forgot that the PSX & PS2 launched with abysmal marketing and no real competition or that Microsoft hasn't made nearly as many fans in the 5 year XBOX lifetime that Sony has made in their 10+ years of gaming, or Nintendo's 30+ years of experience. Long story short, nobody knew that nintendo was prepared to win a marathon, and not a sprint.

 Microsoft just started dude, Give them a break they will have enough users just wait...YOU DIG!!!!



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Parokki on 12 September 2007
BrainBoxLtd said:

I'm going to take a wild guess and say these particular analysts merely looked at final tally from the 6th Generation and just predicted the same thing would happpen all over again.

 


That's pretty much how I think it happened. They looked at the long term trends of Nintendo consoles (62M, 46M, 43M, 22M) and didn't see any reason it wouldn't continue. Of course they probably didn't see the reasons for the decline either, just figured it was weak and the Sony brand strong. Luckily the situation is pretty darn clear now, and third parties should be acting sensibly.

It was excusable back then, but I'm starting to get worried about the people who still think the PS3 will end up on top. I've known of cognitive bias for a while, but never thought it could be this strong.



W29 on 12 September 2007
BrainBoxLtd said:

I'm going to take a wild guess and say these particular analysts merely looked at final tally from the 6th Generation and just predicted the same thing would happpen all over again.

 


 Your correct by that, everyone thought since the PS1 and PS2 was success, PS3 would just keep Sony number one....uuuhhhhh WRONG!!!...They are currently last, and with that price they aren't going anywhere near the Wii or 360.



JMan on 12 September 2007

In 2005, I can see the analysts getting it wrong, not having the complete picture. But, you know, two of those articles were from August 2006, the other two from July 2006. By that time, the E3 has already debuted the Wii to a stampede, and Sony had already announced its all-or-nothing price.

If the analysts knew the market, they would have known the market's reaction to that unbelievably high price (and the market was already reacting). Sony should have known too, if they'd done any research into their true market. I half wonder if the analysts were just listening to their kids go on and on about the PS3, and slamming the Wii due to its name. I knew nothing about the market at the time, but I predicted the Wii would be the top selling toy for Christmas in 2006 all from video footage of the E3.



W29 on 12 September 2007
TheBigFatJ said:
Even today there are still those who predict Sony will spectacularly recover and come back to be #1. Some people are even slower than others, I guess.

 LOL.....wow your right about that!!!!!



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nofosu on 12 September 2007
BrainBoxLtd said:

I'm going to take a wild guess and say these particular analysts merely looked at final tally from the 6th Generation and just predicted the same thing would happpen all over again.

 


 Then they are bloody idiots and should get fired. When looking at this generation there is one other generations that seems some what similar, which is the Nes Generation.


Like the Wii, Nes introduced a simpler control interface to interact with their games, compared to the keyboard/joystick. Back then all of those hardcore gamers then who were using then their Game centric PC’s was also blasting the controller calling it too simple and that it could not bring forth complex game play.

Like the Wii, People called the Nes a generation behind due to its 8 bit graphics processors, whilst compared to the PC’s which were 16 bit then. (There is a common misconception today that during the 8 bit days the Nintendo was competing against Sega. That is not true, Sega came into the console market a good 3 years after the release of the Nes, in Japan, and close to five years later in the western world, Nes’s competition was the game centric PC’s of that time)

Like the Wii. The Nes business strategy was formed with the success of a handheld (game and watch) which also launched a new control scheme.

And last but not least likee the wii, the nes totally dominated the competiton.

And Like the nes, it seems the wii maybe come a new standard in this industry.

If they Used the Whole history book of gaming, they would have seen this!!! Shame on them.


mesoteto on 12 September 2007

what is even better--is that some "analysist" still take the ps3 will dominate statnce and mock the Wii--so now they end up looking even more crazy



 

johnlucas on 12 September 2007
twesterm said:
Nintendo caught everyone with their pants down. They took a huge risk that could have really hurt them or got them where they are today. At first glance, it was the obvious choice to say anyone who takes a step back graphic power wise in a graphic driven industry would obviously spell doom but Nintendo knew exactly what they were doing and it's showing.

They didn't catch me with my pants down. I knew this was gonna happen all along.

Me from 2005: Future of Next-Generation of Gaming

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=3254

The only thing wrong in this prediction was not accounting for Sony's self-sabotage. I'll have to make a note of that in future generation predictions. You learn something new everyday.

This was done before any 7th gen system launched by the way. 

John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

Yuk04 on 12 September 2007
nofosu said:
BrainBoxLtd said:

I'm going to take a wild guess and say these particular analysts merely looked at final tally from the 6th Generation and just predicted the same thing would happpen all over again.

 


Then they are bloody idiots and should get fired. When looking at this generation there is one other generations that seems some what similar, which is the Nes Generation.


Like the Wii, Nes introduced a simpler control interface to interact with their games, compared to the keyboard/joystick. Back then all of those hardcore gamers then who were using then their Game centric PC’s was also blasting the controller calling it too simple and that it could not bring forth complex game play.

Like the Wii, People called the Nes a generation behind due to its 8 bit graphics processors, whilst compared to the PC’s which were 16 bit then. (There is a common misconception today that during the 8 bit days the Nintendo was competing against Sega. That is not true, Sega came into the console market a good 3 years after the release of the Nes, in Japan, and close to five years later in the western world, Nes’s competition was the game centric PC’s of that time)

Like the Wii. The Nes business strategy was formed with the success of a handheld (game and watch) which also launched a new control scheme.

And last but not least likee the wii, the nes totally dominated the competiton.

And Like the nes, it seems the wii maybe come a new standard in this industry.

If they Used the Whole history book of gaming, they would have seen this!!! Shame on them.

 Very nice post, it is true indeed that people should look at the past to learn more about the future.



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JMan on 12 September 2007
TheBigFatJ said:
Even today there are still those who predict Sony will spectacularly recover and come back to be #1. Some people are even slower than others, I guess.

Don't underestimate Sony. 

What happened 

Sony had a spectacular launch -- spectacularly awful, that is.  Why?  I would say the one thing that held it back was the price.  While BluRay + Internet + HD + etc. etc. may be worth $600 to Sony, it isn't worth that much to me, average joe buyer.  $400 is better, $350 puts it within my "value for the money" category, and I think that's when the mass markets starts buying it.  Some of the games for Sony's console are awesome, and I think there are many buyers out there who want the PS3, but are unwilling to spend that much money so we're in a "let's wait for the price to come down."

What we are seeing now

Sony tested the waters with the temporary price drop to see what it would do for sales, and I think they saw a positive impact.  So I think they'll go for real/permanent price drop soon, probably right before Christmas to get people talking about it. 

The games market is going to split.  The development cost of games is going to make PS3 and 360 share most of the HD games, with the Wii getting more exclusives.  This is going to cause many gamers to buy both the Wii and either a 360 or a PS3.  Between 360 and PS3, I think most people will choose the PS3, partly on name brand recognition, and partly on BluRay (which I think is going to win the HD format war), but there is another thing that will be the deciding factor.  And that's what coming out in the near future...

What we will be seeing 

Internet hosted TV is going to take off, and Sony has the perfect console for bringing that to your main TV, with it being a quiet console and also having a browser.  Sony's movie studio CAN make that venture successful.  I say CAN because Sony's stupidity regarding DRM seems to doom them all the time.  Recent decisions are showing they are accepting the reality that people don't want crackpot DRM schemes.  But whether Sony will continue to loosen up remains to be seen.

IMHO, the formula is there for success.  But Sony is going to have to make some sacrifices to really pull this off.  Price cut before this Christmas, and start getting their own movie content onto the web, viewable by their PS3 (and other browsers, but it HAS to be viewable by the PS3 and available in multiple download speeds + available for local storage only if using PS3).  And then good marketing to make "average joe" aware of this functionality.  Like a commercial showing two adults sitting down with their friends to watch a movie.  "Did you buy it or rent it?"  "neither"  "Is it on cable?"  "No, it's available on demand through the internet.  We can watch it on our computer, but we find it to be more comfortable watching it here in High Def on our PS3."  Something like that will get the attention of "average joe."