How did the industry Analysts get it so wrong!!!

[Viper1]

Here is a compilation of analyst predictions last updated in May.

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=16280

Strategy Analytics [Jul-05] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)
Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)
Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)
Total - 198.6 million

Kagan Research (U.S. Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 56.5%
Xbox 360 - 28.5%
Nintendo Wii - 15%

Piper Jaffray (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.6 million (48.3%)
Sony PS3 - 15.5 million (38.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 5.5 million (13.5%)
Total - 40.6 million

Citigroup (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.8 million
Sony PS3 - 11.0 million

UBS [Jan-06] (U.S. Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 23 million (43%)
Xbox 360 - 20 million (38%)
Nintendo Wii - 10 million (19%)
Total - 53 million

Friedman Billings Ramsey (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 24.6 million (40.7%)
Sony PS3 - 23.3 million (38.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 12.5 million (20.7%)
Total - 60.4 million

In-Stat (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 50%
Xbox 360 - 28.6%
Nintendo Wii - 21.2%

Wedbush Morgan Securities (U.S. and Europe Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 45%
Xbox 360 - 35%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 47%
Sony PS3 - 33%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

IDG (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 15.5 million (43.3%)
Sony PS3 - 13.5 million (37.7%)
Nintendo Wii - 6.8 million (19.0%)
Total - 35.8 million

P.J. McNealy (Worldwide Through 2007)
Xbox 360 - 21 to 23 million
Sony PS3 - 13 to 16 million
Nintendo Wii - 12 to 14 million

Yankee Group (North America Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 30 million (44%)
Xbox 360 - 27 million (40%)
Nintendo Wii - 11 million (16%)
Total - 68 million

Nomura Securities (Worldwide Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 71 million
Nintendo Wii - 40 million

Enterbrain / Famitsu (Worldwide Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 34 million (39.1%)
Xbox 360 - 28 million (32.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (28.7%)
Total - 87 million

IDG (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 23.9 million (39.2%)
Sony PS3 - 23.5 million (38.5%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.6 million (22.3%)
Total - 61 million

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through March 2011)
Xbox 360 - 39%
Sony PS3 - 34%
Nintendo Wii - 27%

Strategy Analytics [Nov-06] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (59.47%)
Xbox 360 - 59.7 million (29.15%)
Nintendo Wii - 23.3 million (11.38%)
Total - 204.8 million

SFG Research (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 29.4 million (43.8%)
Sony PS3 - 24.2 million (36.1%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.5 million (20.1%)
Total - 67.1 million

SFG Research (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 62 million (46.6%)
Xbox 360 - 46 million (34.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (18.8%)
Total - 133 million

Screen Digest (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 42%
Sony PS3 - 38%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Screen Digest (Japan Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 64%
Nintendo Wii - 25%
Xbox 360 - 11%

IDC (Worldwide Through 2008)
Nintendo Wii - 32.1 million (37%)
Xbox 360 - 30.4 million (35%)
Sony PS3 - 24.5 million (28%)
Total - 87 million

UBS [May-07] (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 22 million (35.5%)
Sony PS3 - 21 million (33.9%)
Nintendo Wii - 19 million (30.6%)
Tolal - 62 million

---
For perspective, you can compare to actual shipments of the previous generation.

Worldwide Hardware Shipments (End of 2003)
PS2 - 69.46 million (71.53%)
Xbox - 13.7 million (14.11%)
GameCube - 13.94 million (14.36%)
Total - 97.1 million

Worldwide Hardware Shipments (End of 2004)
PS2 - 81.39 million (68.21%)
Xbox - 19.90 million (16.68%)
GameCube - 18.03 million (15.11%)
Total - 119.32 million

Worldwide Hardware Shipments (End of 2005)
PS2 - 101.37 million (69.44%)
Xbox - 24 million (16.44%)
GameCube - 20.61 million (14.12%)
Total - 145.98 million

IDC is the only one to pick Wii above 3rd place and Citigroup didn't even include Wii in the predictions at all.