misterd said: twesterm said: wemysst2 said: leo-j said: Brawl wont get too close to halo 3's lifetime sales that I garuntee. Again Leo-j, what is the rationale for your answer. What's the rationale for anyone's answer? You do know we're all guessing here right? We all can come up with the same numbers saying different things all day but in the end it's all guess work. Let him have his funny little fantasy. Please tell me you are not that ill informed. Those paragraphs of people EXPLAINING why one will outsell the other? Those are their rationales. Sure not everyone is offering their rationales, but Leo-J, who has earned his stripes as a fanboy, is the only one offering a guarantee (or you money back?). If one is just guessing with no supporting logic, its no better than predicting a coin flip, and Leo-J would have to be a gigantic fool to guarantee anything in that case.

 Those numbers make good evidence and help back up the guesses but in the end they are still guesses.  Unless you have a crystal ball that magically predicts the future, you have no right to bash someone on their prediction as long as it's not something completely insane like PSP outsells the DS next month 6 to 1.  Halo 3 and SSBB are going to be very close and it's not outlandish to say one is going to beat the other no matter how you look at it.

twesterm said: misterd said: twesterm said: wemysst2 said: leo-j said: Brawl wont get too close to halo 3's lifetime sales that I garuntee. Again Leo-j, what is the rationale for your answer. What's the rationale for anyone's answer? You do know we're all guessing here right? We all can come up with the same numbers saying different things all day but in the end it's all guess work. Let him have his funny little fantasy. Please tell me you are not that ill informed. Those paragraphs of people EXPLAINING why one will outsell the other? Those are their rationales. Sure not everyone is offering their rationales, but Leo-J, who has earned his stripes as a fanboy, is the only one offering a guarantee (or you money back?). If one is just guessing with no supporting logic, its no better than predicting a coin flip, and Leo-J would have to be a gigantic fool to guarantee anything in that case.  Those numbers make good evidence and help back up the guesses but in the end they are still guesses.  Unless you have a crystal ball that magically predicts the future, you have no right to bash someone on their prediction as long as it's not something completely insane like PSP outsells the DS next month 6 to 1.  Halo 3 and SSBB are going to be very close and it's not outlandish to say one is going to beat the other no matter how you look at it.

In order for any discussion or debate to have any integrety and retain at it's heart an objective standpoint, it is very important that it is backed up with logical arguement. Otherwise its just propaganda. If we keep to some facts and balanced arguement we can come to some stronger predictions. I don't think i would like being told things by people, because they magically whish it will be so. What is the point in the thread then. If this is the case we should all be given a multiple choice question at the start of the thread and leave it at that.

Why am I saying what what whay?

twesterm said: misterd said: twesterm said: wemysst2 said: leo-j said: Brawl wont get too close to halo 3's lifetime sales that I garuntee. Again Leo-j, what is the rationale for your answer. What's the rationale for anyone's answer? You do know we're all guessing here right? We all can come up with the same numbers saying different things all day but in the end it's all guess work. Let him have his funny little fantasy. Please tell me you are not that ill informed. Those paragraphs of people EXPLAINING why one will outsell the other? Those are their rationales. Sure not everyone is offering their rationales, but Leo-J, who has earned his stripes as a fanboy, is the only one offering a guarantee (or you money back?). If one is just guessing with no supporting logic, its no better than predicting a coin flip, and Leo-J would have to be a gigantic fool to guarantee anything in that case.  Those numbers make good evidence and help back up the guesses but in the end they are still guesses.  Unless you have a crystal ball that magically predicts the future, you have no right to bash someone on their prediction as long as it's not something completely insane like PSP outsells the DS next month 6 to 1.  Halo 3 and SSBB are going to be very close and it's not outlandish to say one is going to beat the other no matter how you look at it.

Let's clarify our definitions of guess, shall we? According to dictionary.com com, we have the following choices: –verb (used with object) 1. to arrive at or commit oneself to an opinion about (something) without having sufficient evidence to support the opinion fully: to guess a person's weight. 2. to estimate or conjecture about correctly: to guess what a word means. 3. to think, believe, or suppose: I guess I can get there in time. –verb (used without object) 4. to form an estimate or conjecture (often fol. by at or about): We guessed at the weight of the package. 5. to estimate or conjecture correctly. –noun 6. an opinion that one reaches or to which one commits oneself on the basis of probability alone or in the absence of any evidence whatever. 7. the act of forming such an opinion: to take a guess at someone's weight. My use of "guess", and the most common use, refers specifically to definitions 1, 6, and 7 - to conjecture without evidence. Definitions 2 and 5 fail to apply at all in any case because we don't yet know whether these guesses are correct or not. A conjecture based on established information would be more clearly identified as a hypothesis or inference or logical deduction. Thus one "guess" is not equal to another. As for rights, I have absolutely every right in the world to bash someone else's ideas, and they mine. That is the down side to freedom of expression - others have the right to shoot you down. If we couldn't, there'd be very little conversation in this world. For example: Your qualifier that only SOME predictions can get bashed is absurd due to its complete subjectivity. Who is to decide what predictions are and are not insane? A year ago, the Wii selling out for 10 months would have been insane too. Now, let's be honest - you're changing the topic. Leo wasn't mocked for picking Halo3, he was mocked for guaranteeing that it would win, and it was demanded that he explain the reasoning behind his prediction. Thus he was mocked 1) for his certainty (which you would seem to agree with given your crystal ball comment), and 2) his unwillingness to explain his reasoning, if any. I think a credible case can be made for either game (though I stand by my belief that the SSBB case is much stronger simply due to a larger user base and its ability to sell in all 3 major markets), and can respect a person who put's forth his reasoning (though that doesn't mean it will go unchallenged). I also have no trouble with a person who make an uninformed guess, and admits as such. But to step out on a limb and declare with absolute certainty "I know Halo 3 will win" and then whither away when challenged... that is not worthy of respect.

I'm surprised no one realized this. If Halo 2 didn't come out on the Xbox then Halo would have gotten more sales. Think about it. If you had a choice to get either Halo or Halo2 you'd probably choose Halo2. If Brawl released on the gamecube then melee would of got less sales. What I'm saying is if Halo 2 diddn't release then Halo would have gotten more sales than melee.

First 6 months:

Japan:
Smash = 1.5 mil
Halo 3 = 100k

America:
Smash = 3 mil
Halo 3 = 6 mil

Others:
Smash = 1 mil
Halo 3 = 1 mil

Totals:
Smash = 4.5 mil
Halo 3 = 7.1 mil

As for the long run, I believe Smash will eventually outsell Halo 3, although I don't want to guess when that would happen...

if brawl is online, it will beat Halo 3.
if brawl is not online, it will not beat Halo 3.

Thus have I prophesied.

Xeo_842 said: I'm surprised no one realized this. If Halo 2 didn't come out on the Xbox then Halo would have gotten more sales. Think about it. If you had a choice to get either Halo or Halo2 you'd probably choose Halo2. If Brawl released on the gamecube then melee would of got less sales. What I'm saying is if Halo 2 diddn't release then Halo would have gotten more sales than melee.

 

A reasonable hypothesis, but the question then remains - how much more? Almost certainly not the full 8 million -  a large majority of those likely already owned Halo1. And many likely purchased it for the online play, which H1 lacked.

In the end, while I suspect a non-release of Halo2 would have pushed H1 over SSBM, I don't believe that disparity would be enough to overcome what appear to be long-term trends in this generation.

i didn't get to read everyone's post, but I will have to say the Super Mario Galaxy is going to own everybody and yes that means Halo and smash. I think that Smash will be a close second with Mario Kart being number three and then Halo. Halo will do fantastic numbers, especiall launch day, but seriously Nintendo owns this generation and Halo is only Hyped here and not worldwide. If brawl doesn't have online then you guys might have an argument with Halo, but you don't. Nintendo fans of every kind. diverse or not....everyone buys Mario....everyone. I'm not just saying this because, I like Nintendo. Galaxy looks to be a Mario game done right. If sunshine can sell almost 6 million copies imagine what Galaxy will do on a system that isn't even in stock almost a year out.

naznatips said: MontanaHatchet said: No offense, but the whole, "Brawl will sell more in the long term" is a bunch of crap. No matter how well the Wii sells, Brawl can't even begin to touch Halo's strength. Halo sells somewhat well in Japan, and Smash Bros has never been amazingly strong in Japan, although it does sell quite well, and manages to have long legs. Super Mario Galaxy, maybe. Brawl? No chance. Halo's strength? Well, let's take a look at that shall we. First, I'll paste the numbers for some quick reference: Name Console Publisher Japan America Others Total Super Smash Bros Melee Nintendo 1.44 4.06 1.08 6.58 Totals (1 matches) 1.4 4.1 1.1 6.6 Name Console Publisher Japan America Others Total Halo 2 Microsoft 0.11 6.49 1.67 8.27 Halo Microsoft 0.10 4.91 1.42 6.43 Totals (2 matches) 0.2 11.4 3.1 14.7   Super Smash Bros Melee outsold Halo. You said Halo sells somewhat well in Japan, and Smash Bros. has never been amazingly strong in Japan, but that's just freaking ridiculous. 110,000 units is not somewhat well, it's complete shit. 1.44 million units is amazingly well. Lets look at some other games that have sold less than that in Japan: Kingdom Hearts 1 and 2 sold 1.16 and 1.24 million respectively. Metal Gear Solid 3 sold .86 million in Japan. Everybody's Golf 3 sold 1.39 million in Japan. All of these examples were on a system with more than 5 times the userbase of the Gamecube in Japan. There were only 4.02 million Gamecubes sold in Japan in it's lifetime. That's a 35% lifetime regional attach rate, which is nothing short of incredible. It's ridiculous to not say that's amazingly strong.   Now lets move on to the total sales. Of course there is the looming beast of Halo 2, which managed to outsell Super Smash Bros. Melee by 1.69 million units. This sounds like a lot, but lets break it down a bit more: Super Smash Bros. Melee was released on the Gamecube as a launch title. This means that all of it's sales were based off pretty much nothing but its legs. It powered it's way to the end of the Gamecube's life with strong legs. Halo 2 was released on the Xbox on November 9th, 2004. Prior to it's release, the Xbox had sold 17.34 million consoles according to the latest fiscal reports (filed in September). So, with 17.34 million consoles, Halo 2 was able to pull off 2.5 million units sold in it's first week in America. In the next 3 weeks Halo sold 735,000 followed by 377,000 followed by 293,000 units. Within it's first month on the market, Halo 2 had sold more than half of it's total lifetime sales, again on a console with 17.5 million units already out there when it launched. The Gamecube sold 21.59 million copies worldwide in it's life. The Xbox sold 24.76 million copies in it's life. This gives Super Smash Bros. Melee an attach rate of 30.5% and Halo 2 an attach rate of 33.4%. Not a whole lot of difference when you look at it like that is there? Oh, and remember, we are talking about a launch title vs a game that was launched when the Xbox had already sold 75% of it's lifetime sales. In review, you are saying there is no chance of Brawl surpassing Halo 3, when Melee already outsold Halo (a fellow launch title), and barely did worse than Halo 2 in lifetime attach rate, when Halo 2 was released 3/4 of the way through the Xbox's very short life. To add to that, Halo 3 is being released on the 360 when it has only sold 11 million units worldwide, wheras Brawl is going to be released on the Wii (if sales remain the way they are) when the Wii has sold 14 million units worldwide. The gap between the systems in sales will continue to widen throughout their lifespans as well. Considering that Smash Bros. is a series with huge legs, this can only benefit it, and can only hurt Halo, a very top-heavy game.

That's the exact argument that popped into my head when I read the topic title.  Thanks for laying it out so nicely so that I didn't have to. :P

One thing I'd like to add...

The Xbox had outsold the Gamecube by ~3 mil. units at the "end" of last gen.  That was roughly 12% of the total install base of each console.  This gen, however, the Wii is already ahead in sales by almost 10% (1 mil. units) and by the end of the year there could be 1.5X as many Wiis sold to consumers as 360s (though I'm expecting 1.25-1.3 realistically).  This will give Brawl a major advantage in potential buyers.   

I think that Halo 3 will have a lead on Brawl throughout the rest of 07 (due to Brawl releasing on Dec. 3) everywhere except for Japan.  Immediately upon release it will wipe the floor with H3 in Japan.  I think Brawl will catch up to Halo 3 in overall sales by early '08, catching up to H3 in the PAL regions and maintaining it's monstrous lead in Japan (where 30% of all Wiis have been sold so far).   By the end of this gen, when the Wii has had a chance to catch up to the 360 in NA, Brawl will be evenly matched with Halo 3 in NA, and will have outsold it by a wide margin in the other territories, equalling a healthy lead of at least a few millions in sales overall.