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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Analyst: Wii Is 'Fool's Gold' For Game Investors

Astrotrain said:

Yes, the 360 and PS3 markets have proven to be much more conducive to "AAA" efforts, but this is entirely due to the fact that the Wii has seen absolutely no third party "AAA" titles whatsoever. 

There, cut that down to the TL;DR version for you :P

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PSN - hanafuda

Astrotrain, how do you explain CoD:WaW's relative lack of success (I said relative -- 1M is a fine number, but not compared to the 8M of the PS360 versions, across the approximate same number of consoles).

I think that qualifies as a "AAA" franchise title, it reviewed well, etc. It even has a market vacuum to thrive in, which is supported by your own claims that it has no real competition. Why then the 1:8 ratio?

If its not demographics, I find myself at a loss, as to what it might be.  It benefitted from the same cross-platform advertising and everything. The ratio seems too out-of-whack to be mere coincidence, or a "freak occurance". It even released at a cheaper price.



 

Well maybe because you use two platforms to compare to one. Also the game was lacking many things its HD counterpart(s) had. Never heard of a "relative failure" before for a platinum selling Wii game.



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

Arius Dion said:
Well maybe because you use two platforms to compare to one. Also the game was lacking many things its HD counterpart(s) had. Never heard of a "relative failure" before for a platinum selling Wii game.

You don't think the Wii should sell as much as the other two combined, given its marketshare, and the fact that PS360 games are easily made cross-platform, but PS3-Wii or 360-Wii games are not?

The cost of development, if far less on the Wii, justifies about half the attach rate (dev costs are supposedly cheaper, but other costs, like marketing and production, will not change, especially relative to per-unit revenue).. but it doesn't justify 1/8th, does it?  

The OP is coming at this from the point of games as investments, not as simple "pass/fail" procedures.  It looks like, from the numbers, that if you want to make a good investment on the Wii, you go casual, and think small per-project, whereas if you want to make a good investment on the PS360, you think big, and go with a hardcore shooter, action, or sports genre game.

 



 

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Arius Dion said:
Also the game was lacking many things its HD counterpart(s) had.

Genius... So AAA third party Wii games must be exclusives because the Wii can't compete with the competition? I raise Madworld again. Tons of hype, good reviews, plenty of advertising, and a well respected developer.

PSN - hanafuda

Procrastinato said:

Astrotrain, how do you explain CoD:WaW's relative lack of success (I said relative -- 1M is a fine number, but not compared to the 8M of the PS360 versions, across the approximate same number of consoles).

I think that qualifies as a "AAA" franchise title, it reviewed well, etc. It even has a market vacuum to thrive in, which is supported by your own claims that it has no real competition. Why then the 1:8 ratio?

If its not demographics, I find myself at a loss, as to what it might be.  It benefitted from the same cross-platform advertising and everything. The ratio seems too out-of-whack to be mere coincidence, or a "freak occurance". It even released at a cheaper price.

A couple of reasons.

Apparently, CoD 3 for the Wii was the worst version, and not a very good game (but it outsold the PS2 and PS3 versions anyway).  Then, there was no CoD 4 for the Wii, which was the breakout hit of the series.

Those things hurt the brand on the Wii, while at the same time it was gaining popularity on the 360 and PS3.  So on the Wii, the CoD brand was sort of starting from scratch, while the other versions could build on the success of CoD4.



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theRepublic said:
Procrastinato said:

Astrotrain, how do you explain CoD:WaW's relative lack of success (I said relative -- 1M is a fine number, but not compared to the 8M of the PS360 versions, across the approximate same number of consoles).

I think that qualifies as a "AAA" franchise title, it reviewed well, etc. It even has a market vacuum to thrive in, which is supported by your own claims that it has no real competition. Why then the 1:8 ratio?

If its not demographics, I find myself at a loss, as to what it might be.  It benefitted from the same cross-platform advertising and everything. The ratio seems too out-of-whack to be mere coincidence, or a "freak occurance". It even released at a cheaper price.

A couple of reasons.

Apparently, CoD 3 for the Wii was the worst version, and not a very good game (but it outsold the PS2 and PS3 versions anyway).  Then, there was no CoD 4 for the Wii, which was the breakout hit of the series.

Those things hurt the brand on the Wii, while at the same time it was gaining popularity on the 360 and PS3.  So on the Wii, the CoD brand was sort of starting from scratch, while the other versions could build on the success of CoD4.


Don't forget folks, submissions for the wildest excuse will be accepted until April 11th!

PSN - hanafuda

Hanufada: W@W for Wii is not a "AAA" game in my book. And neither is Madworld. They are good games, but nothing spectacular. Also I doubt Madworld would be selling heeps on HD consoles anyway, so that's a moot point.

Procrastinator: I don't think the "relative to marketshare" (install base, or anyother precursor used to spin a successful game on Wii into an unsuccesful game on Wii) Is logical or relevant in this context. I mean using your logic God of War (1&2) were flops relative to 100m installed base. Why did shovelware like spongebob outsell a game like GoW? Its a slippery slope, and useless to point at. Republic also explains the idea that CoD4 was mia on Wii.



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

hanafuda said:
theRepublic said:
Procrastinato said:

Astrotrain, how do you explain CoD:WaW's relative lack of success (I said relative -- 1M is a fine number, but not compared to the 8M of the PS360 versions, across the approximate same number of consoles).

I think that qualifies as a "AAA" franchise title, it reviewed well, etc. It even has a market vacuum to thrive in, which is supported by your own claims that it has no real competition. Why then the 1:8 ratio?

If its not demographics, I find myself at a loss, as to what it might be.  It benefitted from the same cross-platform advertising and everything. The ratio seems too out-of-whack to be mere coincidence, or a "freak occurance". It even released at a cheaper price.

A couple of reasons.

Apparently, CoD 3 for the Wii was the worst version, and not a very good game (but it outsold the PS2 and PS3 versions anyway).  Then, there was no CoD 4 for the Wii, which was the breakout hit of the series.

Those things hurt the brand on the Wii, while at the same time it was gaining popularity on the 360 and PS3.  So on the Wii, the CoD brand was sort of starting from scratch, while the other versions could build on the success of CoD4.


 

Don't forget folks, submissions for the wildest excuse will be accepted until April 11th!

Ignoring reality doesn't make it go away.



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
Switch - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (2019)
Switch - Bastion (2011/2018)
3DS - Star Fox 64 3D (2011)
3DS - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (Trilogy) (2005/2014)
Wii U - Darksiders: Warmastered Edition (2010/2017)
Mobile - The Simpson's Tapped Out and Yugioh Duel Links
PC - Deep Rock Galactic (2020)