Wii is still powered by launch hype so the current rates won't last, but could pass at the end of holidays '07 depending on what each company does then. Most likely 360 will still be ahead by then but not by very much. Holiday 2008 will be the real big fight between all 3 systems.

I think he meant 8 million as a best case scenario. I basically see Sony selling 450,000 to 600,000 PS3's per month this year from Apr-October. They sold like 350,000 each month in Jan-Feb. March could be like 1.1 million, and Nov-Dec should be about the same. (.35)2 + (.525)(7) + 1.1(3) = 2007 PS3 sales = 7.975 million + 1.2 million or so from last year... ~9.2 million total Wii can do 350k x 10 months Japan...600k Nov, 1.1 mill Dec 325k x 10 months North America...750k Nov...1.25 mill Dec 250k x 10 months Others...450k Nov...800k Dec 3.19 + 5.2 + 5.25 + 3.75 = 17.39 million total (assuming 3.19 Wii's sold through Dec 2006) 360 can (maybe!) do 20k x 10 months Japan...50k Nov...100k December 300k x 5 months N.A. + 400k x 5 months (post price drop!)..650k Nov, 850k Dec 175k x 5 months others + 250k x 5 months others...500k Nov, 700k Dec 8.5 + 5.0 + .350+ 3.325 = 17.175 million total (assuming 8.5 million 360's sold through Dec 2006) Without the pricedrop (and frankly I don't they need one this year with GTA & Halo 3), you lose 875,000 units from June-October, and I'd guess another 325,000 over the holidays..putting 360 at just under 16 million by the end of 2007 (which is why I have Wii catching it in Sept-Dec..calculated on a day to day level it would probably be October 15 - Dec 1, with November 6 being the date my calculation gives me). I made an estimate on the likelihood of Wii catching up to 360. It assumes Wii does catch up. Based on the range in sales expectations, here is what give me for the likelihood of Wii passing 360. In Nov 40% 20% in October 10% in December 5% in September..8% Jan 08'...6% Feb 08'...5% March 08', 3% April 08', 2% May 08' or after, 1% before Sep 07' (if it happens, 84% of the scenarios say it happens in 2007..with 83/84 of those scenarios from September 1- December 31..on a day to day basis..November 6 is the individual day - of all possible days when Wii could pass 360 - with the highest likelihood - 2% - of Wii passing 360)

Wii sales are not going to keep up at this pace forever. It's going to drop off at one point... hopefully for Microsoft and Sony it will be sooner then later. Edit: My guess (you can quote me if/when i'm wrong) is that Wii will not surpass the 360 this year.

What the Sony fans fail to understand is that Sony is the big loser this gen. They will lose almost half of their market share. No spin in the world could make that a positive. Both Nintendo and Microsoft are winners this gen by increasing market share and selling more games.

PS3's first year can outperform 360's first year month-for-month in every territory of the world, and it doesn't matter. PS3 has to be outperforming 360's second year. It HAS to be closing the gap, or developers will jump to 360.

@TheSource I think that you're a little too optimistic about the first half performance of the Wii. I don't think that they'll be able to ship 925k Wii/month until at least the second half of 2007. Meaning that you should revise down your estimates by at least a million

I had Wii at 350k in Japan because months like March will be slow...around 300k, while April should be like 400k with Paper Mario. February I think will be about average, and Wii sold 350k in Japan in February. Jan was 450k so that offsets a slower month. Then I think it hits a plateau of around 80,000 a week in Japan with another 2/7 to 3/7 of 80,000 added to account for months being 30 or 31 days, not 28. Vg charts seems to have Wii at 200-300k in Others/month since 2007 started...which means Wii sold 1.1-1.3 million units in January..with at least 1 million confirmed via US NPD (435,000), Japan (450,000 - M-Create), the fudge rule throws in another 40-50k for Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and then Europe...Australia..Europe sold 800,000 Wii's in December and demand was not met. So I'd put like 150,000 at least in Europe. Realistically, probably over 200,000. January 200k-300k (Europe)+485k+450k ~1,200,000 February 200k-300k (Europe)+ 350k (Japan) + 300-500k (Americas?) ~ 1,000,000 Europe and Americas may be higher here because of fewer shipments to Japan.