I think he meant 8 million as a best case scenario. I basically see Sony selling 450,000 to 600,000 PS3's per month this year from Apr-October. They sold like 350,000 each month in Jan-Feb. March could be like 1.1 million, and Nov-Dec should be about the same. (.35)2 + (.525)(7) + 1.1(3) = 2007 PS3 sales = 7.975 million + 1.2 million or so from last year... ~9.2 million total Wii can do 350k x 10 months Japan...600k Nov, 1.1 mill Dec 325k x 10 months North America...750k Nov...1.25 mill Dec 250k x 10 months Others...450k Nov...800k Dec 3.19 + 5.2 + 5.25 + 3.75 = 17.39 million total (assuming 3.19 Wii's sold through Dec 2006) 360 can (maybe!) do 20k x 10 months Japan...50k Nov...100k December 300k x 5 months N.A. + 400k x 5 months (post price drop!)..650k Nov, 850k Dec 175k x 5 months others + 250k x 5 months others...500k Nov, 700k Dec 8.5 + 5.0 + .350+ 3.325 = 17.175 million total (assuming 8.5 million 360's sold through Dec 2006) Without the pricedrop (and frankly I don't they need one this year with GTA & Halo 3), you lose 875,000 units from June-October, and I'd guess another 325,000 over the holidays..putting 360 at just under 16 million by the end of 2007 (which is why I have Wii catching it in Sept-Dec..calculated on a day to day level it would probably be October 15 - Dec 1, with November 6 being the date my calculation gives me). I made an estimate on the likelihood of Wii catching up to 360. It assumes Wii does catch up. Based on the range in sales expectations, here is what give me for the likelihood of Wii passing 360. In Nov 40% 20% in October 10% in December 5% in September..8% Jan 08'...6% Feb 08'...5% March 08', 3% April 08', 2% May 08' or after, 1% before Sep 07' (if it happens, 84% of the scenarios say it happens in 2007..with 83/84 of those scenarios from September 1- December 31..on a day to day basis..November 6 is the individual day - of all possible days when Wii could pass 360 - with the highest likelihood - 2% - of Wii passing 360)
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
