So, last week I did some complaining against the accuracy vgchartz numbers. Saying that I could do better with just "educated guesses". So I wanted to make this thread to test that theory. Hope it's okay with the mods. 

Sharky August NPD prediction prediction (USA+Canada)

DS 450,000

Wii 430,000

PS2 232,000

PSP 219,000 

360 310,000

PS3 144,000

What I'm going to do is total up the percent differences and then average them (just as vgchartz does when they compare themselves to NPD) and then the winner be the one with the lowest deviation. 

You can see in many cases all I did was copy the previous months NPD. This is not a cheat, it's something I said all along. Many times you can get closer to NPD than vgchartz just by assuming last months sales continued into this month unchanged. So that was my baseline, especially on consoles I dont pay much attention to, such as DS and Wii.

Of course, this doesn't work for consoles experiencing a major change, notably a price drop. Such as 360. Here was the major area I disagree with vgchartz. I think 360 sales will be significantly higher than expected, I have several data points for this believe (gamestop, Chart Trak,) . Also, the one thing most people aren't counting on is Elite finally reached full availability. This will create a double bump with the price drop and propel 360 even higher. I also think PS3 will fall off a bit where vgchartz sees them as unchanged or slightly up. I also moderated Wii and DS sales down slightly. I just dont think Wii sales will maintain their blisteringly high level established last month. Other than that I bumped PS2 down just slightly because I think 360 increased sales will hurt PS2 just a tad.

 Let the best man win!

kber81 said: Educated guesses... I'm sure it's not ok with mods... or ioi.

 Why not? I am trying to see if I can beat vgchartz prognostication!

Only I dont have data, just hunches, good guesses, etc! 

First of all you can't beat VG chartz... you can face Patcher but not ioi who tracks sales... Man... your prediction is just funny... because of fact you like/support X360 you've added some more units. Everything else is a carbon copy of ioi's numbers (+/- 5k-10k ) ... what would you predict without this site? If you really like to challange this site try to make prediction for October right now.

Double post.

kber81 said: Educated guesses... I'm sure it's not ok with mods... or ioi.

Joke post?

I see nothing wrong in comparing his guesses to VGC's estimates.  That's pretty much what we do in every NPD thread anyway.

Hell, I can face Pachter, but he has 1 thing that I don't have. A company paying him prolly around 60k/year to do what I do for enjoyment in reading forums and looking at game sales and interest. Anyone wanna offer me that?

And kber81, shrug, he can predict, he's using the two most common sources, one 15k, one free, and adding his bias and predictions. Taking educated guesses and adding his own. If VGChartz were in fact a pure guessing site, it may be unfair, but it's goal is to approximate sales as accurately as possible, which it often does extremely well. (I don't have Ad Block on IOI, all ad revenue from me!) All he is doing is seeing if his bias is correct. He didn't necessarily need to share it, but if he is a good predictor, at least this backs it up.

Everyone here knows ioi is really serious about this project. His numbers are for real and it's a result of some serious work. I think you can't just pop up here make a topic as "Sharky knows better than Vgchartz". It's not ok. Simply some things are prohibited on forums. If I was a mod (can you imagine this ) I would lock this topic. End of the story.

Pachter makes a lot more than $60k, add a zero to that you might be closer. Not that I think he deserves it, but it is what it is.

Well, I'll definately take 600k to do this.

Hell, I can predict most anything and so long as it's not like "Xbox360 sells 100 million in October 07" off, I apparently won't be fired for it.