So, last week I did some complaining against the accuracy vgchartz numbers. Saying that I could do better with just "educated guesses". So I wanted to make this thread to test that theory. Hope it's okay with the mods.
July NPD | Aug VGC | |
DS | 450,755 | 440,725 |
Wii | 461,419 | 420,580 |
PS2 | 242,278 | 227,713 |
PSP | 219,825 | 195,269 |
Xbox 360 | 183,119 | 270,805 |
PS3 | 174,037 | 181,007 |
GBA | 96,750 | 87,101 |
Sharky August NPD prediction prediction (USA+Canada)
DS 450,000
Wii 430,000
PS2 232,000
PSP 219,000
360 310,000
PS3 144,000
What I'm going to do is total up the percent differences and then average them (just as vgchartz does when they compare themselves to NPD) and then the winner be the one with the lowest deviation.
You can see in many cases all I did was copy the previous months NPD. This is not a cheat, it's something I said all along. Many times you can get closer to NPD than vgchartz just by assuming last months sales continued into this month unchanged. So that was my baseline, especially on consoles I dont pay much attention to, such as DS and Wii.
Of course, this doesn't work for consoles experiencing a major change, notably a price drop. Such as 360. Here was the major area I disagree with vgchartz. I think 360 sales will be significantly higher than expected, I have several data points for this believe (gamestop, Chart Trak,) . Also, the one thing most people aren't counting on is Elite finally reached full availability. This will create a double bump with the price drop and propel 360 even higher. I also think PS3 will fall off a bit where vgchartz sees them as unchanged or slightly up. I also moderated Wii and DS sales down slightly. I just dont think Wii sales will maintain their blisteringly high level established last month. Other than that I bumped PS2 down just slightly because I think 360 increased sales will hurt PS2 just a tad.
Let the best man win!
