kber81 said: sharky said: Why not? I am trying to see if I can beat vgchartz prognostication! Only I dont have data, just hunches, good guesses, etc! |
First of all you can't beat VG chartz... you can face Patcher but not ioi who tracks sales... Man... your prediction is just funny... because of fact you like/support X360 you've added some more units. Everything else is a carbon copy of ioi's numbers (+/- 5k-10k ) ... what would you predict without this site? If you really like to challange this site try to make prediction for October right now. |
Ummm no. I genuinly believe 360 will be high this month. We have two data points to support that. Gamestop reported 360 sales doubled after the cut (of course that was early on, and who knows if the trend continued). We also have chart track saying sales rose 260% in the UK after the cut (again first week) either way data points to a near doubling.
Also the one thing where I believe my knowledge is superior is the fact most people are not accounting for the fact August is the first month where Elite is not supply constrained. The Elite is very popular and was always sold out prior. So even if the 360 had not seen a price drop, I believe it would have gotten a big sales bump from that. So I am predicting very high 360 sales. In fact, I would like to predict 340,000 or more, but I went with a safer estimate.
"Everything else is a carbon copy of ioi's numbers". No, I did not use ioi as my baseline. I used last month's NPD sales rates as my baseline. I already explained this. Last month, you could beat vgchartz just by using the prior month's sales as your guide, and adjusting the PS3 for the price drop. In many cases my guesses are close to ioi, because ioi's are usually close to prior month NPD sales rates. I cant help that. We do have significant areas of difference, in 360, PS3, and PSP sales.