interesting predictions...i think if nintendo has a big E3 and they announce some good first party "core" games then i think there will be more excitement from the core group of gamers and the wii sales would pick up more...if ps3 gets a price cut then i think it will be hard for the wii to get a 50% market share by this year's end

Japan has really slowed nintendo's push for market share, before it was like Wii at 70k with PS3 at 30k, or wii at 50k with ps3 and 20k and 360 selling just a few k. Now Nintendo is losing market share in Japan, and gaining tons in America.

It is also interesting to consider, that from what we know, Wii can follow either the "PS2 model" or the "DS model"

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=DS&reg2=All&cons3=PS2&reg3=All&weeks=258&weekly=1

The PS 2's sales increased for 3 Christmas seasons, reached its peak, and started decreasing significantly.
The DS had five gradually increasing Christmas, and from what we know, the next one can still bring new increase.

In other words: What is the reason behind the DS longetivity? The fact that it is a handheld, or that it is a Blue Ocean product?

If it is the latter, we can expect 2,5-2,8 million Wiis sold in this December, even bigger sales in 2010 December, and much bigger sales in 2011, complete with constantly shrinking PS360 numbers.

In this case, even 60% would be an understatement.

Okay, first - I changed it into totals. http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=DS&reg2=All&cons3=PS2&reg3=All&weeks=258

Second, you have to consider that DS had a redesign into DSL. That's at about week 70.

In 2 holidays and 70 weeks, DS (without lite) sold 16M.

In the next 70 weeks (just 1 holiday) it sold 30M.

That's a nearly 100% increase, and that's almost solely because the DSL released.

For a comparison, Wii sold 23M, then 26M.

I believe Wii won't follow either.

Anyway, I decided to put your argument into a yearly table (I already had one). You have a fair point, and I kinda forgot what I was going on about, so I'll pick it up later (got a huge headache, sorry).

Edit: it messed up. Gah

I believe that, as a handheld it sells differently. We can expect that quite a number of families have more than one DS at house, while we can't say the same 'bout wii.

Some have a Ps3, a 360 and even a wii at home. But I don't think that there are a lot that own 2 wii's or 2 360, right?

I believe that the happier a member of one family gets with a handheld, the easier is to sell to the rest of them. So, I can see the Wii selling less after his peak (not that THIS Christmas is his peak). BUT, DS shall have his peak one day, right?

IF Wii keeps selling more and more, that's because it's a blue ocean product, if DS sells like that, it has the cherry of *handheld* on top of that.

Through March 2009 shipments are something like:

Wii ~50.95m

PS360 ~ 53.65m (22.85m and 30.8m are my estimates for PS3/360)

Through March 2008 shipments were:

Wii ~ 24.45m

PS360 ~ 31.85m

Through March 2007 shipments were:

Wii ~ 5.84m

PS360 ~ 14.51m

So the gap narrowed about 106,000 units per month on average from March 2007 to March 2008, and then from March 2008 to March 2009 narrowed at about 390,000 units per month.

In other words, even as the PS3 and 360 have seen price cuts the gap has generally shrunk between them and the Wii.

By March 2010 it should look something like:

Wii ~ 75m - 86m (24m to 35m units in the year ending March 2010)

PS360 ~ 74m - 82m (20m to 28m units in the year ending March 2010)

I'd probably put it at 80m and 78m by March 2010, so in terms of shipments it will likely happen in ~February 2010. If Wii or PS360 dramatically speed up or slowdown, it could happen much sooner or much later than that. But its hard to imagine PS3/360 shipments of less than 10-14m for the next fiscal year (each), and hard to imagine Wii shipments under 24m or over 35m.

Hopefully never....

Way to many factors to give a solid guestimate.

Situation A - No change in the market. Wii Sports resort comes out with Wii motion plus, and continues the dominacnceof the Wii. Playstation 3, and Xbox 360 announce nothing new besides games, and additional basic needs for their boxes.

Resolution A - Nintedno takes 50% before the end of the year.

Situation B - Microsoft and Sony rip off the motion controller of the Wii, and most games this holiday can be played in either classic controls of motion controls. Nintendo puts out Wii motion + and Pikman.

Resolution B - Depending on marketing, Wii may loose a ton of momentum, and could actually sell below the PS3/360. Wii will not reach 50%.

Situation C - Sony takes the PS3 3D this holiday, and Releases Gran Turismo 5. Microsoft comes out with a motion controler, and pushes hard into Nintendos market. As before, Nintendo has very little room to move becuase, their system is underpowered, and really has little room to grow.

Resolution C - Again this depends on marketing. In this case, Sony could either stay as they are or see a massive resergance, as the interest in 3D is through the roof. Microsoft, should easly be able to persuade consumers should they bundle the Arcade with both a standard controller, and a motion based controller. Wi will not reach 50%.

Situation D - Sony cuts the price of PS3 to $299. Microsoft, cuts the arcade to $179, $249 for pro. Nintendo drops Wii to $199.

Resolution D - No chance for the Wii to reach 50%.

Situation E - Sony drops the price of the PS3 to $299, adds a motion first controller, and goes 3D. Microsoft drops the price on 360 to $179, $249, $349, and brings out a heavly backed motion controller. Nintendo, really has no were to go, unless they have thought of something no one has ever thought, and it is bad ass and possible on Wii.

Situation E - Miricals aside. Sony and Microsoft would dominate. Wii below 45% by end of year.

There are to many factors to consider. Sony, and Microsofts machines are so much more capable than the Wii that they have no were to go but up. Both competitors can easly take what the Wii is doing and make it much better.

With that said, I expect massive game changing moves by both Microsoft and Sony at E3. Unless they are retarded they should be able to outsell Wii together this year.

....Those are some weird conclusions, KBG.

Soon...at the curent rate.