When will the Nintendo Wii Sales Pass the Combined Sales of Xbox360 and PS3

[KBG29]

Way to many factors to give a solid guestimate.

Situation A - No change in the market. Wii Sports resort comes out with Wii motion plus, and continues the dominacnceof the Wii. Playstation 3, and Xbox 360 announce nothing new besides games, and additional basic needs for their boxes.

Resolution A - Nintedno takes 50% before the end of the year.

Situation B - Microsoft and Sony rip off the motion controller of the Wii, and most games this holiday can be played in either classic controls of motion controls. Nintendo puts out Wii motion + and Pikman.

Resolution B - Depending on marketing, Wii may loose a ton of momentum, and could actually sell below the PS3/360. Wii will not reach 50%.

Situation C - Sony takes the PS3 3D this holiday, and Releases Gran Turismo 5. Microsoft comes out with a motion controler, and pushes hard into Nintendos market. As before, Nintendo has very little room to move becuase, their system is underpowered, and really has little room to grow.

Resolution C - Again this depends on marketing. In this case, Sony could either stay as they are or see a massive resergance, as the interest in 3D is through the roof. Microsoft, should easly be able to persuade consumers should they bundle the Arcade with both a standard controller, and a motion based controller. Wi will not reach 50%.

Situation D - Sony cuts the price of PS3 to $299. Microsoft, cuts the arcade to $179, $249 for pro. Nintendo drops Wii to $199.

Resolution D - No chance for the Wii to reach 50%.

Situation E - Sony drops the price of the PS3 to $299, adds a motion first controller, and goes 3D. Microsoft drops the price on 360 to $179, $249, $349, and brings out a heavly backed motion controller. Nintendo, really has no were to go, unless they have thought of something no one has ever thought, and it is bad ass and possible on Wii.

Situation E - Miricals aside. Sony and Microsoft would dominate. Wii below 45% by end of year.

There are to many factors to consider. Sony, and Microsofts machines are so much more capable than the Wii that they have no were to go but up. Both competitors can easly take what the Wii is doing and make it much better.

With that said, I expect massive game changing moves by both Microsoft and Sony at E3. Unless they are retarded they should be able to outsell Wii together this year.