for the PS3, i think a 50$/€ reduction is enought for flat sales.

And a 100$/€ reduction for a 30% or more rise in sales.

So it depend of "when" and by "how much".

If they cut the price by 50$ by may or june, and 50$ by october or november, a 10-15% rise in fiscal year 2009 is clearly possible. altought there will be other price cuts by nintendo and microsoft.

Probably not without a price cut, but there are some good games coming so you never know.

this could mean the ps3 will indeed get a price cut i think it will sell more in 09 than in 08 so more than 10-15% for the ps3

That will only happen with a price cut at the E3. Right now they are about 200K (7%) lower then what they were last year. We all know there will be no price cut until E3 in June at the earliest. That's another 2.5 months to go. After the price cut, it's a good chance it will sell more then it did last year. 10-15% isn't unreasonable.

Sony isn't estimating that. Analyst are predicting this. I still don't see it happening until the E3 at this point.

Well, they're going to sell 2 million more consoles in Japan by 1-1-2010. They'll probably stay about the same in America for the rest of the year but get some pops when GT5, God of War III, and Uncharted 2 release. In Europe a $299.00 model would be putting the 360 back where it was before the last price cut last year. There is a lot of momentum going the PS3's way right now.

Hints at Pricecut =

sony are doing all they can BESIDE A PRICE CUT do achieve that. theres like a new ps3 exclusive being announced ever other day. so yeh, i think it is possible without a price cut. they are going to save the price cuts for late 09/early 10. sony is too smart to enter desperation mode.

He seemed a lot more confident in his statement about the PSP. A 10% increase for the PS3 isn't out of the question with the release of FF13 and GOW3. A price cut would certainley do a much larger increase in sales than 15% so I think we can assume a price cut won't be coming this year.