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Forums - Sales - Predict the percent (%) of market share for the Wii, PS3, 360 by gen's end

dtewi on 07 September 2007

No mitsuhide, I'm talking about this

"I dunno if i'm alone to think that way but I cannot really catch why so many people put the wii as the expected winner of the next gen consoles.
To me the wii isnt a next gen anyway it's rather a bridge between the ps2/xb and ps3/x360. why would anyone who has bought a ps2/xb in the last 3 years would buy a machine that offers so little hadware improvement. ok it's fun, the controller really brings sometin new (it's fun for awhile...) but i dont see the wii as the machine that's gonna keep me playing for the coming 6 years.
I wouldn't be surprised if the sales in 1 year from now look very different to what they are at the moment"

I don't see much logic that



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

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mitsuhide on 07 September 2007

Oh i thought you meant his predictions dtewi.That comment is kinda of extreme and any one can see that.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

Sqrl on 07 September 2007
mitsuhide said:
@NorthStar:
All the Wii owners will say "Oh those titles will be too late to do anything for the PS3".

 Don't put words in my mouth, I think those titles will do plenty for the PS3, but I am realistic in that I know they will not be boosting the PS3 to wii sales levels.

PS - This thread is quickly headed where I knew it would

To Each Man, Responsibility
mitsuhide on 07 September 2007

It didnt take long for this thread to go off and into heated debate mode.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

jimmay on 07 September 2007
HappySqurriel said:
Biroutman said:
I dunno if i'm alone to think that way but I cannot really catch why so many people put the wii as the expected winner of the next gen consoles.
To me the wii isnt a next gen anyway it's rather a bridge between the ps2/xb and ps3/x360. why would anyone who has bought a ps2/xb in the last 3 years would buy a machine that offers so little hadware improvement. ok it's fun, the controller really brings sometin new (it's fun for awhile...) but i dont see the wii as the machine that's gonna keep me playing for the coming 6 years.
I wouldn't be surprised if the sales in 1 year from now look very different to what they are at the moment

Honestly, I own a decent PC rig (X2 3800+ and Geforce 7800GT) and an XBox 360 and I think the graphics improvements of the PC and XBox 360 offer amost nothing in comparison to what the XBox, PS2 and Gamecube brought in the last generation. The PS3 and XBox 360 offer fluff and flair with little or no added substance; essentially you get the same content with better graphics from these two systems ... On the other hand the Wii offers new content with similar graphics.

 


Sigh no, could dead rising have been done last generation with the amount of enemies on screen??? The answer is no. The 360 and the ps3 have proven that better hardware offers new gameplay experences already.

On another topic here's a news flash for you, most developers dont want to make mini games or quick shallow gaming experences. They want to make the best games they can and they cant make these games on the wii only the ps3/360/pc. So even if the wii does finish as being the number one in terms of hardware sales, proper full games (not spin offs) like final fantasy, assassins creed and metal gear solid will never end up on the wii.



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HappySqurriel on 07 September 2007
jimmay said:
HappySqurriel said:
Biroutman said:
I dunno if i'm alone to think that way but I cannot really catch why so many people put the wii as the expected winner of the next gen consoles.
To me the wii isnt a next gen anyway it's rather a bridge between the ps2/xb and ps3/x360. why would anyone who has bought a ps2/xb in the last 3 years would buy a machine that offers so little hadware improvement. ok it's fun, the controller really brings sometin new (it's fun for awhile...) but i dont see the wii as the machine that's gonna keep me playing for the coming 6 years.
I wouldn't be surprised if the sales in 1 year from now look very different to what they are at the moment

Honestly, I own a decent PC rig (X2 3800+ and Geforce 7800GT) and an XBox 360 and I think the graphics improvements of the PC and XBox 360 offer amost nothing in comparison to what the XBox, PS2 and Gamecube brought in the last generation. The PS3 and XBox 360 offer fluff and flair with little or no added substance; essentially you get the same content with better graphics from these two systems ... On the other hand the Wii offers new content with similar graphics.

 


Sigh no, could dead rising have been done last generation with the amount of enemies on screen??? The answer is no. The 360 and the ps3 have proven that better hardware offers new gameplay experences already.

On another topic here's a news flash for you, most developers dont want to make mini games or quick shallow gaming experences. They want to make the best games they can and they cant make these games on the wii only the ps3/360/pc. So even if the wii does finish as being the number one in terms of hardware sales, proper full games (not spin offs) like final fantasy, assassins creed and metal gear solid will never end up on the wii.


Which is why Dragon Quest 9 is being produced on the most powerful hardware available, the Nintendo DS!



Legend11 on 07 September 2007

The situation is a lot more complicated than many of the people here seem to realize or want to admit. For example Nintendo is extremely strong on their own platform and that is a cause for concern among third parties.

For example read the following article to see what I'm trying to get at:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=28438

Also things are very different from last generation when the three consoles were relatively close in power compared to the current consoles and also the fact that the two highend consoles this generation are seeing some kind of merging with the PC market with many games coming out for all three platforms in relatively short periods of time. It's slowly becoming harder to make multi-platform games as the expectations on all three consoles changes.

And finally while the marketshare for the Wii is obviously going to be high, especially for the next two years, as prices come down for both the 360 and PS3 they will keep coming into the reach of more and more consumers until they eventually reach the mass market price points where all consumers are finally able to consider their consoles and they're finally able to compete for the same consumers as Nintendo.



jimmay on 07 September 2007
HappySqurriel said:
jimmay said:
HappySqurriel said:
Biroutman said:
I dunno if i'm alone to think that way but I cannot really catch why so many people put the wii as the expected winner of the next gen consoles.
To me the wii isnt a next gen anyway it's rather a bridge between the ps2/xb and ps3/x360. why would anyone who has bought a ps2/xb in the last 3 years would buy a machine that offers so little hadware improvement. ok it's fun, the controller really brings sometin new (it's fun for awhile...) but i dont see the wii as the machine that's gonna keep me playing for the coming 6 years.
I wouldn't be surprised if the sales in 1 year from now look very different to what they are at the moment

Honestly, I own a decent PC rig (X2 3800+ and Geforce 7800GT) and an XBox 360 and I think the graphics improvements of the PC and XBox 360 offer amost nothing in comparison to what the XBox, PS2 and Gamecube brought in the last generation. The PS3 and XBox 360 offer fluff and flair with little or no added substance; essentially you get the same content with better graphics from these two systems ... On the other hand the Wii offers new content with similar graphics.

 


Sigh no, could dead rising have been done last generation with the amount of enemies on screen??? The answer is no. The 360 and the ps3 have proven that better hardware offers new gameplay experences already.

On another topic here's a news flash for you, most developers dont want to make mini games or quick shallow gaming experences. They want to make the best games they can and they cant make these games on the wii only the ps3/360/pc. So even if the wii does finish as being the number one in terms of hardware sales, proper full games (not spin offs) like final fantasy, assassins creed and metal gear solid will never end up on the wii.


Which is why Dragon Quest 9 is being produced on the most powerful hardware available, the Nintendo DS!


Dragon quest never was a game that was about pushing hardware and doing new things with better technoligy. As far as old school games go it is very, very old and most rpgs have moved past dragon quests level of gameplay now. Do you think metal gear 4 can be done on the wii that meets the vision of it's creators? How about call of duty 4, Oblivion or bioshock. Yeah didnt think so.

When people this year want to play new and old games such as Skate, Half-Life 2: The Orange Box, Call of Duty 4, Stranglehold, Army of Two, Kane & Lynch, Assassin's Creed and Rock Band do you think they'll be playing them on the wii or the 360/ps3...o yeah that's right they cant play them on the wii because even tho they are 'multi format' games the developers didnt want to have to compromise making the game they wanted to make, just to shoe horn it onto an inferior system.



Legend11 on 07 September 2007
RolStoppable said:
Legend11 said:
1) The situation is a lot more complicated than many of the people here seem to realize or want to admit. For example Nintendo is extremely strong on their own platform and that is a cause for concern among third parties.

For example read the following article to see what I'm trying to get at:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=28438

2) Also things are very different from last generation when the three consoles were relatively close in power compared to the current consoles and also the fact that the two highend consoles this generation are seeing some kind of merging with the PC market with many games coming out for all three platforms in relatively short periods of time. It's slowly becoming harder to make multi-platform games as the expectations on all three consoles changes.

3) And finally while the marketshare for the Wii is obviously going to be high, especially for the next two years, as prices come down for both the 360 and PS3 they will keep coming into the reach of more and more consumers until they eventually reach the mass market price points where all consumers are finally able to consider their consoles and they're finally able to compete for the same consumers as Nintendo.

1) What I get out from that article is that 3rd parties are concerned because a success of the Wii would mean they would have to deliver new and innovative content in order to keep up with the quality of Nintendo's games. Simply put, they would have to make good games which apparently some companies don't want to do. Instead they would prefer to keep making sequels and/or clones of popular games.

2) I think 3rd parties prefer to make exclusive games, rather than multiplatform games. Because exclusives usually result in higher quality and therefore are more hyped (and sell better) among the dedicated userbase of a given platform (see Wii, 360, PS3 owners on this forum, the most anticipated games most of the time are exclusives, whether they are 1st or 3rd party). If the console with the highest userbase also happens to be the one cheapest to develop for, all the better for 3rd parties, more profits.

3) The Wii will drop in price as well. By the time the 360 and/or the PS3 reach the $200 price point the Wii will most likely be available for $150. Also, two years from now the Wii will be the console with the most (good) games and the most new released (good) games. At this point most people will be going to purchase the Wii, similar to last gen when most people started to ignore the Xbox and GC in favor of a PS2.


1) True but I was pointing out the fact that Nintendo's 1st party titles dominate it's platform.  The article also mentioned it along with the fact that because the Wii's userbase is more diverse companies will have to work harder to find games that will appeal to them.

2) I'm not sure about that, otherwise companies like EA wouldn't be remotely as successful as they are.  Multiplatform titles are able to be sold to more of the potential audience for a game than those on a single platform.  Also unlike the other console makers Nintendo doesn't usually offer anywhere near the same kinds of incentives, I think that's a big reason why the vast majority of the big budget games are appearing on the other consoles.

3) There's a pretty big difference between a console that sells for $399-$499 eventually dropping to $200 and one that is $259 and eventually dropping to $150.  One is moving into the range of the mass market while the other is already there or extremely close to it.  Anyone who thinks that the prohibitive prices of the 360 and PS3 aren't playing a factor in sales among the three consoles are kidding themselves.



jimmay on 07 September 2007
RolStoppable said:
Legend11 said:

1) True but I was pointing out the fact that Nintendo's 1st party titles dominate it's platform. The article also mentioned it along with the fact that because the Wii's userbase is more diverse companies will have to work harder to find games that will appeal to them.

2) I'm not sure about that, otherwise companies like EA wouldn't be remotely as successful as they are. Multiplatform titles are able to be sold to more of the potential audience for a game than those on a single platform. Also unlike the other console makers Nintendo doesn't usually offer anywhere near the same kinds of incentives, I think that's a big reason why the vast majority of the big budget games are appearing on the other consoles.

3) There's a pretty big difference between a console that sells for $399-$499 eventually dropping to $200 and one that is $259 and eventually dropping to $150. One is moving into the range of the mass market while the other is already there or extremely close to it. Anyone who thinks that the prohibitive prices of the 360 and PS3 aren't playing a factor in sales among the three consoles are kidding themselves.


1) If 3rd parties don't want to compete directly with Nintendo's games, they are better off filling the gaps in the library with for example sandbox games, racing games, FPS, RPGs. Red Steel, despite its mediocrity, showed that there is certainly demand for FPS on the Wii. The other genres I mentioned, so far haven't seen a decent 3rd party game which isn't a port of a 6-12 month old game.

2) EA games usually aren't hyped though. Their games mostly sell because of their sports and movie licenses and these kind of games don't even require quality to sell well. The more popular the license the better. The reason why the vast majority of big budget games is not appearing on the Wii is because development for these games started in 2005/6 when 3rd parties didn't expect the Wii to be relevant in the 7th generation of consoles.

3) Of course price is playing a factor in sales, but size and variety in game library is an even bigger factor, in fact the most important one. Last gen the GC was always the cheapest console out of the three, but by the time it launched, the PS2 already had so many (good) games out that the better graphics and lower price of the GC didn't challenge the PS2 at all.

People usually choose the system with the most games available once it reaches a for them reasonable price point (like the PS2 last gen), and most people only buy one console per generation. By the time the 360 and/or PS3 drop to $200, the Wii will already have such a big game library (with a great variety as well) that the 360 and PS3 won't stand a chance saleswise because of their comparable small libraries.


The wii is getting left behind in terms of quality top rated software. This christmas isnt going to change anything either, in fact it gets even worse for the wii. Looking into the future of 2008 of all the 3 consoles both the 360 and ps3 have more top games annouced for their respective systems than the wii.