In all fairness, the 360 will have far more than 10m consoles sold by the time it hits the two year mark. Halo will provide a MASSIVE shot in the arm for the console and we still have until mid-November to reach the two year mark (while it currently sits close to 10.5m). I expect it to be around at least 12m at the two year mark. Not that impressive but not that bad, either.

One reason I think the 360 will beat out the PS3 is because of holiday 2007 and its price point. When 2008 rolls around, the PS3 will get a shot in the arm with MGS4 but there's a damned good chance that GT5 and FFXIII will be delayed into 2009 (anyone who's read about the White engine problems and knows the history of the GT franchise can't really argue this). In any case, the PS3 should have a very good 2008 but a lot rides on SE and Polyphony getting their games out in a timely fashion. Meanwhile, any sale that MS can take now is likely a theft of a sale from Sony. The more they can pump this holiday season and 2008, the harder it gets for Sony to make back that ground, especially considering the price points of the consoles. Just because Sony has a great 2008 lineup doesn't mean that MS can't steal a fair amount of thunder by hitting a holiday 2008 price point of $250 for a Pro unit. Besides, we know virtually nothing of the 360 lineup for next year. There could be a few gems we don't know about because MS has been very tight-lipped about their upcoming games.

Ok, some hours not here and then a 5 page topic. Not bad :)

I say:

Wii - 50% (120 M)
PS3 - 27% (65 M)
360 - 23% (55 M)

Remember that you're talking to a former Wii owner who only sold the console because it was collecting dust and I plan to buy another one late this year or early next year. I have nothing against the Wii. :D

I don't worry about the Wii "ruining" gaming but I do have concerns about the Japanese market in general. Many of my all-time favorite games came from developers that get most of their revenue from the Japanese market. With the Japanese market transitioning to casual games, I worry that some of the great devs of years past will start producing games that don't cater to my personal tastes. Is that the fault of the Wii or the DS? Absolutely not. It's just where the Japanese market sits nowadays and Nintendo did a better job of catering to the burgeoning market than did Sony or MS. Nintendo isn't "ruining gaming", they're just doing a better job of catering to a new marketing demographic that would sit there, untapped, whether the Wii/DS did or did not exist.

@ scotland yard AND rocketpig: I stand corrected; but I also stand by my predictions.

New prediction: the HDD-inclusive 360 -- by any name -- will NOT be at $250 before Thanksgiving 2008. (Probably not at all 2008 IMO, but I like to be safe.)

You seem to agree here -- "holiday 2008" -- which means that it won't be stealing LBP's thunder, or MGS4's, etc. (Again, in the US; I'm ignorant of EU release dates.)

Xbox360 : 25%
PS3 : 20%
Wii : 55%

No more than 60% for Wii and No less than 20% for X360 and PS3 each is reasonable.

I think it might. It's rumored that MS will have a Pro (formerly called Premium, same frickin' thing) at a $300 price point in late 2007 or early 2008. It's not impossible for them to get that down to $250 by holiday next year. I'm not saying it will happen but it is a distinct possibility, maybe even likely.

And while Sony may have LBP (eagerly anticipating that one) and MGS4 (each installment irritated me a little more and sales show I'm not the only one) early next year, those aren't prime-time selling points. At best, you'll move a few thousand more consoles a month from February to June but what really matters is your lineup from August to November. And frankly, we don't know what either MS or Sony will have in store for us at that time. There's a mess of Halo Wars/Killzone 2/FFXIII/Alan Wake/GT5/Too Human etc. that won't be sorted out for quite some time and I believe that patience is the best option. I'm only going on what I see in the near future because in the console world, wars are usually won in the first two holiday seasons.

 It's confusing because the % suggest that sales of the 3 system directly relate to each other. % are relative by nature, I hope we can agree there. However, the last 10 or 20 million Wiis may be sold when the 360 and PS3 are already dead.

If you think something like Blue Ocean is happening that would be another reason against %. Because PS3 and 360 focus on growing the Red Ocean, they will only benefit marginally from Nintendo exploring a Blue Ocean. For every Blue Ocean customer Nintendo finds Sony's and MS' market share will go down. If you don't dare to estimate the size of Blue Ocean you cannot estimate market share.

 (http://www.encyclopediadramatica.com/images/6/61/Notrly.jpg if it doesn't come up)

The thing a lot of people forget is PS games did well, becuase of the systems high uswer base. Look at the MGS games on the PSP. Did they do well. Not really.

The other thing is people seem to think the PS3 can "come back". That is a lie. The public as of now has made their choice. Even with a price cut, people will stick flock to the 360 and Wii. People just don't change their minds, and most of the people who will have 2 systmes will have a Wii and 360 due to better titles, and price. It will still be too expensive and the games are not big system sellers. Look at how FF12 did. It did good, but on a system of a userbase of 100million+, it's pretty sorry. Showing the franchise is dieing (or losing steam).

I think too many people over hype the PS3. It's not like it's doing any better in Japan then the 360. It becomes balance as the PS3 does "OK" in Japan but the 360 soars in the US. So, it balances out.

@Smashcu

Uhh your last paragraph is terribly wrong