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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict the percent (%) of market share for the Wii, PS3, 360 by gen's end

Kratos on 04 September 2007

50-60% Wii
20-30% PS3
10-20% 360



PSN ID: clemens-nl                                                                                                                

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FJ-Warez on 04 September 2007

57 % Wii
22 % XBOX360
21 % PS3



By me:

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Mitt on 04 September 2007

Wii- 50%
360- 29%
PS3- 21%

I think MS will do everything to finish second this time. They understand how important it is - MS wants Xbox to become PC of the 21st century. It's not just about games anymore.



nathantay on 04 September 2007

360=40%

Wii=40%

PS3=20%



         

ismael on 04 September 2007

wii-45%

PS3-30%

360-25%



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Yojimbo on 04 September 2007

Wii=55-60

PS3=20-25

360=19-22



 
Final-Fan on 04 September 2007
RolStoppable said:
Final-Fan said:

OMFG I just checked the posts and there was exactly one [edit: two] prediction such as you describe: and it was made by RolStoppable [edit: and ItsaMii]!

Wii: 70 - 85 %
360: 8 - 17 %
PS3: 7 - 13 %

[edit: Wii - 80%
[PS3 - 12%
[Xbox 360 - 8%]

So the best case scenario for the Wii has it selling over five times as much as the PS3 and 360 combined! That seems pretty ridiculous.

It should be noted, however, that the best-case scenario for the PS3/360 isn't as outrageous as one might think. In fact, they are predicted to do slightly better than the GC and Xbox did. I would say that is a reasonable guess -- but not as a maximum range!


The numbers I posted are for final marketshare once all consoles have stopped selling (i.e. less than 10k units ww/week). I see the Wii as a new starting point for videogames just like the NES was a cultural phenomenom. The Wii could very well sell for 10 years.

70 % is about the same the PS2 will have after it stops selling so that'a a reasonable guess for the winning system of this generation, isn't it? Realistically I expect the Wii to sell at least three times as much as the PS3/360 combined. Who knows, maybe the Wii is really a revolution for videogames and the marketshare ends up higher. The ranges I posted are wide ones anyway.

Don't forget, some people have the PS3 at 45+ %. Nintendo fans aren't the only ones who seem to be crazy in this thread.


As I said, it's not the 70% I have a problem with at all -- it's the 85%.  The Wii could hit 75% but 80% is the absolute max I can consider at all possible. 

Yeah, other people are predicting PS3 or 360 to win, which is at least as unlikely as 85% for the Wii -- but you, RonStoppable!  I looked up to you.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Garcian Smith on 04 September 2007

Has anyone stopped to consider that some of the high 360 predictions in this thread are simply fanboyism? I mean, MS has all but given up on any territory other than North America.



"'Casual games' are something the 'Game Industry' invented to explain away the Wii success instead of actually listening or looking at what Nintendo did. There is no 'casual strategy' from Nintendo. 'Accessible strategy', yes, but ‘casual gamers’ is just the 'Game Industry''s polite way of saying what they feel: 'retarded gamers'."

 -Sean Malstrom

 

 

Final-Fan on 04 September 2007
Garcian Smith said:
Has anyone stopped to consider that some of the high 360 predictions in this thread are simply fanboyism? I mean, MS has all but given up on any territory other than North America.

I would never have guessed.  To be fair, though, it's doing all right in Europe.  Well, a lot better than "given up" anyway. 

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Hus on 04 September 2007

After all the software discussion.

PS3 60%
Wii 30%
360 10%