The answer to the original question is... NO! Don't underestimate the power of the waggle!

No. The Wii is a cultural phenomenon.

Nope and if it did it would only be a short term victory at the most.

yeah it will outsell it

No, just like a 99 GameCube dind't sell better than a 199 PS3.

I believe you mean the "199 PS2." Eitherway that's not a good example because the PS2 actually had good games. Wii is a success because of its family friendly and chubby kids need exercise.

As far as the thread question, probably not. The gap is pretty big as of right now but it would be a huge boost in sales.

OK Assuming Nintendo do nothing then a $99 console would outsell the Wii and I would expect the Wii numbers to be adversely affected.

That said I cannot see Nintendo doing nothing and any significant price decreases would probably balance out but both systems would get significant bumps.

As far as I remember last time M$ dropped the price it worked amazingly well. Since it dropped price, the last 6 months PS3 in Europe has only been above 360 sales once. Whereas before price drop 360 was always losing in Europe. :)

"Amazingly well" is a tad excessive. Well, yes, undeniably, the cut stopped XB360 being pwned by PS3, amazingly not really, as despite becoming cheaper than Wii it kept on being sodomized without butter by it. 

I would bet that if they raised the Wii up to 300 dollars and dropped the 360 down to 99 dollars it would be a lot like the 99 dollar gamecube vs the 200 dollar or more PS2. The Wii would still dominate the 360 without a doubt since no matter how cheap it is the 360 market is rather limited relative to the Wii. I know more then a few people over 50 who own (or plan to own a Wii) and none that say the same about the 360, similarly many families with young children are in the market for the Wii and not so much for MS's gamerboy box.

Right before the 360 came out the then current gen Xbox was on sale for 40 dollars at gamespot (I should know, I got one to play Jade Empire) and yet they sat there for months not selling. Price doesn't move the needle on this, the Wii has the meme on its side, its the family console, the console to have and all the rest.

If the question was would the PS3 at 199 or 99 outsell the Wii that would be more interesting. We still haven't determined whether its the overly high price point (at twice the 360 and almost twice the Wii's price) or that Sony has lost it entirely. Given how well the PS1 sold under 200 dollars and then how well the PS2 sold under 200 dollars I would be inclined to believe that if the PS3's price halved tomorrow it would be the number one console through the rest of the year (given Playstations pretty good record with the casuals, there certainly aren't 140 million purely hardcore gamers out there).

The only way the 360 is beating the Wii is if they make the 360 Wiimote and Wii game compatible, even then, I think the Wii would probably win.