I would bet that if they raised the Wii up to 300 dollars and dropped the 360 down to 99 dollars it would be a lot like the 99 dollar gamecube vs the 200 dollar or more PS2. The Wii would still dominate the 360 without a doubt since no matter how cheap it is the 360 market is rather limited relative to the Wii. I know more then a few people over 50 who own (or plan to own a Wii) and none that say the same about the 360, similarly many families with young children are in the market for the Wii and not so much for MS's gamerboy box.
Right before the 360 came out the then current gen Xbox was on sale for 40 dollars at gamespot (I should know, I got one to play Jade Empire) and yet they sat there for months not selling. Price doesn't move the needle on this, the Wii has the meme on its side, its the family console, the console to have and all the rest.
If the question was would the PS3 at 199 or 99 outsell the Wii that would be more interesting. We still haven't determined whether its the overly high price point (at twice the 360 and almost twice the Wii's price) or that Sony has lost it entirely. Given how well the PS1 sold under 200 dollars and then how well the PS2 sold under 200 dollars I would be inclined to believe that if the PS3's price halved tomorrow it would be the number one console through the rest of the year (given Playstations pretty good record with the casuals, there certainly aren't 140 million purely hardcore gamers out there).
The only way the 360 is beating the Wii is if they make the 360 Wiimote and Wii game compatible, even then, I think the Wii would probably win.
PSN ID: ChosenOne feel free to add me
