Launch sales eh, well it might. It should be very close.

It will be huge, however launch sales will be weak in the same way Wii Fit was. Primarily because it's bundled with HARDWARE.

If Nintendo oversupplies, then maybe, but when have they been one to do that?

The other issue is user motivation. They would have to get their full audience hyped about it, and they haven't said a word about Wii Sports Resort since E3

Because cute fun casual titles are important, and big budget titles with gobs of features that keep people playing 2 years after launch are just fluff?

Yes actually. People will still be playing Wii Sports (and presumably resort) for much longer than two years. I'm amazed people still don't get that.

It's not the same man.  People might pull out the wii and blow the dust off when they are having a party or something, but people that play halo play it on a very regular basis (i.e. at least once a week).  I would say the majority, not all mind, but the majority of people that buy this game will play it pretty regularly the first month, and then hardly touch it.  I think you are overthinking the casual mentality.  They are called casual players for a reason.

And think some people still don't get, how the Wii is selling: word of mouth!

So I see no chance at all, that it will beat ANY of the mayor PS3/X360 titles in the first week.

But it will beat ALL of the PS3/X360 titles in lifetime-sales.

So the wii "hardcore"-crowd buys it, shows it to friends, after a month or so, every however small TV-journalist might have seen it and shown the new motion controls in their TV-Shows and the games continues to sell and sell and sell and sell.

Next thing, like FreeTalkLive said, Nintendo got not only a different strategy with advertisement, another important part of the legs is, keep your products rare. I still don't see a single Wii fit in shops. Probably it's the lack of production capacities, but in the end it works fine for them.

This.

I doubt it. I don't think most of the people who bought the wii for wii sports are waiting for an update but I could be wrong.

Im guessing around a Million for first week, then monster legs as Ninty then advertise the life out of it with the usual "family playing together" thing and the "celebrity family playing together" thing.