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Forums - Sales - Is the PS3 selling badly? Why do you think it is/isn't?

Killzone3 on 26 August 2007
Final-Fan said:

 

Killzone3 - you are doing the exact kind of thing that Claude correctly points out perpetuates this idea that the PS3 is underperforming -- you always have this mythical PS3 domination that is TOTALLY COMING in four to six months, it never does, and then people say the PS3 is selling badly. The fact is that the PS3 sold LESS than the 360 until the price cut, on average about ten thousand less which is about 15% less -- not huge but not "even". But afterwards it did 40-50% better.

 

 There are many variables and reasons for it, but.

Fact is align launches, 360/PS3 are even.
In 07 PS3 out sold the 360.

What the can 360 do in 08, its one market vs The World with the biggets franchises in gaming.

 



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white devil on 26 August 2007

I think there are a number of factors.

Number 1, PS3 was supposed to be the PS2. It turned out to be dead last so far.

Number 2, alot of companies went in with the expectations that PS3 would be their bread and butter, with the 360 and Wii making up some more money. That hasn't turned out to be the case. The 360 is providing the lions share of 3rd party sales for the current generation. 3rd parties underestimated the Wii and are now playing catch up. These factors came into play partly because of the PS3 not meeting expectations. What further compounds this is that the PS3 doesn't have good software sales even proportionally.

Number 3 is the catch up game. Yes, the PS3 might catch up to the 360, but not any time soon looking at the numbers, and quite honestly the chance of the PS3 catching up is small anyway. Many make the argument that when the price becomes reasonable, people will go by their Playstations. But that's not how the world works. If you miss the train, you're fucked. People aren't gonna sit around waiting for you to get your shit together, they're gonna move on to the next cool thing. The Wii did everything right in that respect, while the PS3 dropped the ball hard. Right now, there's the HD part of games and the Wii. If people want HD, they're not gonna wait around for the PS3 to catch up in price and software.



Final-Fan on 26 August 2007
WiteoutKing said:
Final-Fan said:
FishyJoe said:
Final-Fan said:

The PS3 shouldn't lose developers to the 360, for instance, because it is in fact selling better than the 360. It will probably lose developers to the Wii, though.

Developers could really care less about weekly sales. It's all about installed base. The Wii and 360 have 6+ million more potential customers each to sell games to.


Well, true they don't care about weekly sales. And, true, they care about installed base. But they also care about FUTURE install base. They want to know where sales will be a year or two from now, when the game they are going to make will actually hit shelves.

So they do, actually, care about sales, as an indicator of future install base. If the PS3 and 360 sales retain their proportions to one another, the PS3 will overtake the 360. And it will then have a larger install base. Which, as you say, developers care about.


If they retain their current (let's say, last three months) proportions to each other, the PS3 would be lucky to pass the 360 in four years, let alone ever. Four years is WAY too long for developers to sit on their thumbs waiting.


First off, the "let alone" item should be more extreme. "I don't want to spend $400 on a PS3, let alone $500!"

To address your argument: I said "proportions". Proportions =/= numbers. If sales quadrupled for Thanksgiving/Christmas, that 20K lead becomes 80K. Now it's not so long, is it? And sales are likely to go up over time as well. Also, even if the PS3 only had a 20K lead forever, that would still be less than 3 years.



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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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Lost tears of Kain on 26 August 2007
Killzone3 said:
Final-Fan said:

 

Killzone3 - you are doing the exact kind of thing that Claude correctly points out perpetuates this idea that the PS3 is underperforming -- you always have this mythical PS3 domination that is TOTALLY COMING in four to six months, it never does, and then people say the PS3 is selling badly. The fact is that the PS3 sold LESS than the 360 until the price cut, on average about ten thousand less which is about 15% less -- not huge but not "even". But afterwards it did 40-50% better.

 

 There are many variables and reasons for it, but.

Fact is align launches, 360/PS3 are even.
In 07 PS3 out sold the 360.

What the can 360 do in 08, its one market vs The World with the biggets franchises in gaming.

 


exactly, so how is it going to pass it, just look at whitout kings sig and this is the last time i should have to tell you

 



                 With regard to Call of Duty 4 having an ultra short single player campaign, I guess it may well have been due to the size limitations of DVD on the XBox 360, one of various limitations multi-platform game designers will have to take into consideration-Mike B   

Proud supporter of all 3 console companys

Proud owner of 360wii and DS/psp              

Game trailers-Halo 3 only dissapointed the people who wanted to be dissapointed.

Bet with Harvey Birdman that Lost Odyssey will sell more then Blue dragon did.
WiteoutKing on 26 August 2007

Total sales as of Dec 31 2006:
360: 7,820,120
PS3: 1,233,394

Total sales as of Aug 19 2007:
360: 10,510,895
PS3: 4,318,017

Total sales BETWEEN Jan 1 2007 and Aug 19 2007:
360: 2,690,775
PS3: 3,084,623

The 360 is leading by over 6 million units. The PS3 selling only 400k more units over a nine month period isn't really going to do all that much. At this rate of 400k/9mo it would take eleven years for the PS3 to surpass the 360.

 

Final-Fan: You're right about the "let alone" part, my mind must be wandering, heh.

If the PS3 had a 20K lead per week every week, it would take 310 weeks to make up the difference.  That's nearly six years.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

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FishyJoe on 26 August 2007
WiteoutKing said:
You cannot define what is and is not a failure in the eyes of the industry. Just as I cannot.

But I can guarantee you that the PS3 is in no way viewed as a success, or even a mediocre console. Right now it is floundering and quickly losing support.

Actually you can. The industry cares about one thing, profit. By that measure, both Sony and Microsoft are failing. Microsoft being slightly less a failure than Sony in the current generation. 



Final-Fan on 26 August 2007
WiteoutKing said:
You cannot define what is and is not a failure in the eyes of the industry. Just as I cannot.

But I can guarantee you that the PS3 is in no way viewed as a success, or even a mediocre console. Right now it is floundering and quickly losing support.


If it fails to make money or causes the maufacturer to exit the industry, it's a failure.  Until then it's a "disappointment". 

And, to forestall the cheap shots, the PS3 was always meant to lose money at first.  It it never climbs out of its hole, then it will be a failure.  



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

WiteoutKing on 26 August 2007
FishyJoe said:
WiteoutKing said:
You cannot define what is and is not a failure in the eyes of the industry. Just as I cannot.

But I can guarantee you that the PS3 is in no way viewed as a success, or even a mediocre console. Right now it is floundering and quickly losing support.

Actually you can. The industry cares about one thing, profit. By that measure, both Sony and Microsoft are failing. Microsoft being slightly less a failure than Sony in the current generation.


 I meant the specific "you", referring to Final-Fan, not the general "you", referring to anyone, but yes, I agree with this statement.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

FishyJoe on 26 August 2007

I don't think they ever expected to lose $3+ billion dollars. At least they never told the shareholders that.



johnsobas on 26 August 2007
Final-Fan said:
WiteoutKing said:
Final-Fan said:
OKAY. I THOUGHT I SPELLED THIS OUT PRETTY CLEARLY IN THE OP BUT APPARENTLY NOT.

THE PS3 IS SELLING POORLY COMPARED TO THE PS2. IT IS SELLING POORLY COMPARED TO THE WII. IT IS SELLING POORLY COMPARED TO EXPECTATIONS. IT IS SELLING POORLY COMPARED TO SONY'S PREDICTIONS.

COMPARED, COMPARED, COMPARED. NONE OF THAT MEANS THAT THE SALES ARE JUST PLAIN BAD.

The PS3 shouldn't lose developers to the 360, for instance, because it is in fact selling better than the 360. It will probably lose developers to the Wii, though.

This post, in a nutshell, is exactly where you're wrong.

No one expected the Wii to perform this well. It was dead last in the last generation and floundering around trying to get a foothold in the console business. When the Wii came out, it completely exceeded expectations. Even if it sold only half as well as it is now, it would be selling well as far as the industry is concerned.

The Xbox performed poorly last generation. This generation it is performing slightly better in all regions. This is a plus for the Xbox 360. It is not selling particularly well, but it isn't selling particularly poorly either.

The PlayStation 2 was, bar-none, the best-selling console ever. The PlayStation 3 should have been a proper next-step for Sony. It should have been able to live up to the PlayStation brand name that dominated the gaming world for the last decade.

But it didn't.

It's sold horribly, and even despite its recent better sales over the 360, it is still not living up to its brand name. This is why it is considered to sell badly. Because as far as the industry is concerned, the PlayStation 3 is not even remotely close to what it was supposed to be.

Comparisons are everything in this industry. You don't have to be the best to get attention. You just have to do better than you were supposed to.


The PS3 is not doing nearly as well as people thought it would. The industry as a whold is less confident in Sony than it was a year ago.

However, The PS3 is not the giant albatross around Sony's neck that it was viewed to be six months ago. If it has not lived up to its predecessors' name, neither has its failure been nearly as dismal as that of the Saturn (to which it bears many similarities).

The PS3 has been a failure compared to the PS2. That does not make it a FAILURE.

That's pretty damn bad to go from the highest selling system of all time to below gamecube level.  PS won the first gen and absolutely dominated the one after that, it's not that difficult to win again when you have built the brand loyalty that Sony did.  They could have released a $300 system that is HD and slightly less powerful than the 360 and they simply would have dominated.  This is a stupid N64 like mistake that has cost them everything including ALL the money they made during a generation that they dominated more than any system ever has.  If that's not a failure I don't know what is.  I take that back because at least with the N64 they were still profitable, this is even worse than Nintendo's N64 mistake.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X