Interesting info, that's less than I would have expected. I wish people wouldn't spread misinformation about things like this.

I'd say about 1.1 million copies needed, maybe 1.5? I am pretty sure it is going to make that amount of sales. I'd say it will be a decent return on the investment and worth the development. The issue with these HD costs is not that a game cannot make a profit, big releases can and do, its that the risk is a big risk on every project. And when one project fails it can easily erase the profits from a sucessful one + some.

Anyways, the site said it was since 2007 (game has been in development longer) and ithe article is a bit older, I expect the dev cost is really about 30 millionish.

Dev Cost + Marketing... I'd say around 35-40M

And yes, I'm 100% sure it will.

And it looks like Surfer Girl used the wrong figures! Killzone 2 didn't cost 21 million Euros. It was 16 million Euros, which was 21 million USD at the time:

From GameSpot:

MM You are leaving some important things out in your esitmates.

1. The Netherlands is quite a socialist country so taxes/fees are higher even though the developers see far less money in the hand.

2. Its extremely densely populated so the building rent/ownership costs are much higher as well.

This is true, but it's unlikely the taxes are enoguh to offset the lower salaries overall.  Unless taxes were over 50%.

I know they're ungodly rates in Norway, Sweden, and Finland (in one coutnry...Sweden, I believe? they approach 86%), for example, but I'm not sure about the Netherlands.

Rent/ownership fees would probably pay a significant factor however. It's more likely they rent.

Chances? Virtually none. At least not solely from KZ2 sales. $50 mil is a pretty conservative estimate of what the game cost, and to my knowledge no advertising is involved in that number. Even 3-4 million copies sold wouldn't guarantee a return, but that doesn't stop them from sharing the engine and textures and what not with other projects. Plus, with moderate success a KZ3 can get the green light and cost much less, allowing more return there. Not to mention it will help the system's reputation, etc.

Will the whole project be beneficial to Sony? Probably. Will KZ2 sales make up for KZ2 costs? Not bloody likely at 1.1 million pre-order to retailers and GameStop not having midnight releases do to low preorders.

That link clearly says 20 million since 2007.  And then the rest of the costs are how much?

You've gone from this:

To this:

It's common knowledge that it's been rumored to be over $50 million. It's total budget has never been confirmed.

Uh... no.

The only official number we have is that the game costs more then 21 Million dollars.  By how much we don't know.