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Forums - Sony Discussion - What do you think the chances are of Killzone 2 making a profit?

BengaBenga said:
My estimate is a $65 million budget. I've explained that before and don't feel like looking that up right now, but I think it's pretty close.

Sony receives some $40 per sold game (first party: no license fee).

My estimate for the break even point is somewhere below 2 million units, which it will most likely sell.

Do they really get $40 for each game?  Retailers only get a third?

And what about advertising?

At the guy that suggested a $40 million budget, link?  I thought it was common knowledge by now that it's WELL over $50 million.

 



 

 

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I made a similar thread a couple months ago and the conclusion was it's most definitely going to make profit. As long as it sells a minimum of 1 million then it'll be fine. (sorry I can't remember the title of that thread, so I can't find it)

 



antfromtashkent said:
i say its 50/50... it will or it wont :)

Sereoustly though i think 3 mill should cover a profit margeon... if MGS4 can do it... im sure a 90%+ FPS shooter can... granted a lot of sales for MGS4 came from japan... an FPS will do a lot better in america/UK

 

you beat me to the punch

 

oh yeah, 1.5 mil breaks even. anything above that profit. and 1.5 mil is easy cake on a stick. so profit is more than likely



http://talkplaystation.com/the-cost-of-developing-the-big-games/


Killzone 2 costs 20M to make with a 40M budget which includes Advertising costs etc.



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20M to make back in July 08. It won't be a signficant increase though, probably to 22-25 M (if that estimate on the site is correct in the first place that is)



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Who cares ? really.

and why care ?



twingo said:
Who cares ? really.

and why care ?

Did u get lost?

This is a site made for sales of video games and consoles.... this is a very valid question....

 



Assuming development has cost $60M and marketing $20M (sorry, I have no idea how much it actually costs) (a total loss of $80M), and if Sony got $30 for each game sold, the game would have to sell 2.67M copies to break even. I'd say Sony is probably going to make a profit but 2.67M copies isn't exactly little, so they might just not make a profit, of course depending on the game's actual success.

Personally I think Killzone 2 has a rather big random factor compared to other games: it has sure been hyped more than enough, and apparently it is a good game too, but on the other hand its predecessor wasn't very good and the game does look kinda bland. Besides, we don't really know how an average consumer (depending of what you think is an average consumer) would react to the game.



The rumor that the budget doubled to $60 million came from Surfer Girl. Since when do we trust Surfer Girl?

In the same rumor, she claimed that the game was struggling in development, and would ultimately be "barely mediocre".  She also claimed that the team had a high turnover rate, yet over 90% of the team that worked on the original Killzone are still at Guerrilla.

She also claimed that it would dethrone Shenmue as the most expensive game ever made ($70 million), despite the fact that GTAIV was already approaching $100 million when the rumor was made.

She clearly didn't, and has never known was she's talking about.  If it's even a she...

Here's the link:

http://ps3.qj.net/Rumor-Killzone-2-budget-doubled-because-of-Guerrilla-Games-/pg/49/aid/112518

It's been said that MGS4 cost a bit over $50 million to make, and given the size of Kojima Productions vs Guerrilla Games, and given the wage disparity between those in Amsterdam and those in Japan, it's likely that the game probably cost a bit less than MGS4. Developers in Amsterdam are generally paid half of what they are in NA, for example.  Also, much of Guerrilla's costs centered on team expansion.  They had to purchase a rather hefty generator to supply their facility with enough power to work on Killzone 2, for eample.  These changes were necessary, and were an investment in all of Guerrilla's future projects, and not just Killzone 2.

Going by that, it would have to sell ~1.25 million to break even.

Even if the game cost more than that, as Benga surmises, it would still take less than 2 million to break even. It should easily clear that mark. Hell, look at how fast LBP crossed 2 million. This is the only ps3 game with more hype than LBP, and it's a better fit for most ps3 owners than LBP, so it should outsell LBP.

Edit:

And it looks like Surfer Girl used the wrong figures! Killzone 2 didn't cost 21 million Euros. It was 16 million Euros, which was 21 million USD at the time:

From GameSpot:

While Black Book cost more than 16 million euros (approximately $21 million)


So even if SG's 2x figure was correct, it'd only be $42 million.



makingmusic476 said:
The rumor that the budget double to $60 million came from Surfer Girl. Since when do we trust Surfer Girl?

In the same rumor, she claimed that the game was struggling in development, and would ultimately be "barely mediocre". She also claimed that the team had a high turnover rate, yet over 90% of the team that worked on Killzone are still at Guerrilla.

She also claimed that it would dethrone Shenmue as the most expensive game ever made ($70 million), despite the fact that GTAIV was already approaching $100 million when the rumor was made.

She clearly didn't, and has never known was she's talking about. If it's even a she...

Here's the link:

http://ps3.qj.net/Rumor-Killzone-2-budget-doubled-because-of-Guerrilla-Games-/pg/49/aid/112518

It's been said that MGS4 cost a bit over $50 million to make, and given the size of Kojima Productions vs Guerrilla Games, and given the wage disparity between those in Amsterdam and those in Japan, it's likely that the game probably cost a bit less than MGS4. Developers in Amsterdam are generally paid half of what they are in NA, for example.

Going by that, it would have to sell ~1.25 million to break even.

Even if the game cost more than that, as Benga surmises, it would still take less than 2 million to break even. It should easily clear that mark. Hell, look at how fast LBP crossed 2 million. This is the only ps3 game with more hype than LBP, and it's a better fit for most ps3 owners than LBP, so it should outsell LBP.

i bet you she's not even a surfer.....let alone a girl....    >:(