Chances? Virtually none. At least not solely from KZ2 sales. $50 mil is a pretty conservative estimate of what the game cost, and to my knowledge no advertising is involved in that number. Even 3-4 million copies sold wouldn't guarantee a return, but that doesn't stop them from sharing the engine and textures and what not with other projects. Plus, with moderate success a KZ3 can get the green light and cost much less, allowing more return there. Not to mention it will help the system's reputation, etc.
Will the whole project be beneficial to Sony? Probably. Will KZ2 sales make up for KZ2 costs? Not bloody likely at 1.1 million pre-order to retailers and GameStop not having midnight releases do to low preorders.
You do not have the right to never be offended.
