I want to start first and foremost by pointing out that this thread freely invites speculation.

I want to know using everything, both well-sourced evidence and rumours, what profit or loss people expect Killzone 2 to make.

Things to take into account are:

-Development budget:  Estimates have put this game's development budget at anywhere between $50 and $100 million  US dollars.  Rumours a year ago suggested it had cost $60 million AT THAT POINT.  The game has had a staff of over 100 people (and then some) at certain points and has had input from Sony first and second party studios OTHER than Guerilla Games.

-Marketing and distribution budget:  The distribution of this game should cost a similar amount to any other medium-high popularity title.  But the marketing could be FAR more substantial.  Be sure to include a marketing estimate in your conclusion.

-Sales:  This is tricky but it is here that you need to set an estimated required number of non-bundled sales that must be made to bring about a KZ2 profit.  It should be noted that bundled sales will probably result in a loss or break even only for Sony due to the cost of making a PS3.  Personally, I do not think it is necessary to include bundled sales and subsequently hardware costs in this process, but if someone wishes to get that complex they are welcome to do so.

Remember to show the methodology you are using to reach your figures.  Use anything at your disposal that could remotely be considered evidence.  Please everyone remember that speculation in this thread is a given, and remember that everything said is an opinion until I tell you the way it is () after a few other people have posted.

Ideally people would give details like how many non-bundled copies need to be sold to ensure a profit, how many they believe will be sold, the money from each sale going to Sony AND therefore how much profit they believe will exist.

Geez.First we need to know budget...
Then how much they spent on marketing..
Then how much each game sold gives them money...
Then do they get money from bundled games..
Then we can think do they make profit.

50 to 100M$? Are you okay??? Last "optimistic" estimations put the budget at 40M$ at most!

I'm 100% sure the game will be profitable. It will sell like hotcakes, and don't forget all the DLC stuff!

Depends if it get's good sales and lots of DLC's, then it might make a profit.

I imagine it will but it wont be much—if you think about the time and money that went in

4 years and one of the bigger ad campaigns for a Sony game

Your going to get a fat stack of debt built up

My estimate is a $65 million budget. I've explained that before and don't feel like looking that up right now, but I think it's pretty close.

Sony receives some $40 per sold game (first party: no license fee).

My estimate for the break even point is somewhere below 2 million units, which it will most likely sell.

1. I'm gonna say that the game cost $USD50 Million just for speculation sake.

2. I'll also put the marketing budget at around $USD20 Million just for speculation sake.

3. Each game sold will net a revenue of $USD60

Now I'm going to divide each game sale up like this:
- $25 retail margin
- $5 ditribution cost
- $30 Sony Profit

So if the above were accurate, to make back the $70 Million, Killzone 2 would have to sell 2,333,333 copies of the game.

If Sony makes more money per game then it will break even sooner, if it makes less then it would take more sales.

Also if the marketing budget was lower then it'd be closer to 2 Million needed sales.

EDIT: It seems Benga knows the figures a bit better than I do - It'll make profit going by both our figures

i say its 50/50... it will or it wont :)

Sereoustly though i think 3 mill should cover a profit margeon... if MGS4 can do it... im sure a 90%+ FPS shooter can... granted a lot of sales for MGS4 came from japan... an FPS will do a lot better in america/UK

Their will probably be also DLC that will cut the cost drastically.

I suspect Sony first target with KZ 2 is to attract new PS3 owners than making profit with the game.