Plus it was the game of the year for most publications...that helps. It is still considered as one of the best games ever made... Lets see where Conduit is 2 years from now.

disolute c'mon now..

That's totally subjective; I could say Halo sucked, which I do think so, it's obviously not my best game ever made.

Even if we string together any context that may relate, it's still all subjective.

The best thing we can do is correlate the profits. Micro$oft vs High Voltage.

not near, Halo is part of a culture not the conduit

I didn't say it was the best game ever made but one of the best games. Most top 100 lists will have Halo listed higher than 50... Lists such as these:

http://top100.ign.com/2005/021-030.html

http://top100.ign.com/2008/ign_top_game_15.html

I realize these are sometimes popularity contests...however Halo had the quality to back this up. Its reception was positive across all publications.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo:_Combat_Evolved#Reception

While personal tastes are different for everyone, one can't deny that Halo was a turning point for consoles and FPS games.

In any case, I am not saying that the Conduit will be bad, infact I am looking forward to it. However, saying Halo was big because microsoft's advertising campaign is wrong...

Yes, that is it!  If The Conduit is bundled with Wii Sports, it will break the sales record for Halo!

Muhahahaha!

There are a few unknowns regarding The Conduit including how good of a game it is and how heavily marketed it will be, but (assuming a high quality well marketed game) is how well the game is selling 3+ months down the road.

Now, a similar game on the HD consoles would be fairly easy to predict because by the end of the initial 3 month period two similar games would have been released with large marketing campaigns and any residual interest in the game would die out fairly quickly ... In other words, the biggest advantage The Conduit has is that few publishers have released similar games for the Wii and for quite a while after its release it could be the "Only game in town" and build fairly large sales over time.

Let's not forget Red Steel 2. It's supposed to be out this year, it couldn't be that long after The Conduit. It could suck, but they seem to be putting time into this one at least.

they could just hide a copy of the conduit in every wii and voila you have millions of sales

Red Steel 2 could be released this year, but it could be released 4 or 5 months after The Conduit is released ...

Essentially, what I was pointing out was that (on the PS3) games like Killzone 2 are released very near to FEAR 2, The Chronicles of Riddick, and Resident Evil 5 which do have a pretty decent overlap in target demographics and few people will end up buying 2 or more of these games because of how close together their releases were.

True, but that huge amount of shooters reflects the huge base of shooter fans on the HD consoles. I'm not saying there's no shooter fanbase on the Wii, but it's smaller, it'll take some time and some games to make a big fanbase for shooters on Wii. Hence, it's possible that a single shooter could steal the thunder from The Conduit, especially if we expect The Conduit to have legs rather than be front loaded.