There are a few unknowns regarding The Conduit including how good of a game it is and how heavily marketed it will be, but (assuming a high quality well marketed game) is how well the game is selling 3+ months down the road.
Now, a similar game on the HD consoles would be fairly easy to predict because by the end of the initial 3 month period two similar games would have been released with large marketing campaigns and any residual interest in the game would die out fairly quickly ... In other words, the biggest advantage The Conduit has is that few publishers have released similar games for the Wii and for quite a while after its release it could be the "Only game in town" and build fairly large sales over time.







