No, but only in existing markets. If it comes out in the emerging markets than it would be an easy yes. Plus, we still won't know if supply will affect sales or how holidays will have an impact on hardware sales.

I'll add another no.

PS2 was something of a perfect storm, aligning a new console with a new home media format (which people actually wanted). They came in early and stayed late.

The Wii, for all its goodness, is just a gaming console, and it started a year late and will likely jump out a little early, giving it at least 2 fewer years on the shelf than the PS2.

There's a good chance the Wii will outsell the PS2, and it's getting better all the time. The big unknown here is wether Nintendo is going to keep it on the market long enough, or get greedy and release something new too soon. If they want to, they can definitely hit a hundred million in record time, but they also like to make money, and releasing new hardware will become a good idea at some point.

It's definitely going to outlast its current competitors though. Succesful consoles have huge lifespans, and less succesful ones don't. That's how it works.

In Japan, yes I think the DS opened the flood gates.
WW no...

No. Wii will max out at about 85m.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=5998&start=0

It will not happen. The PS2 is going to continue to sell well for a few more years, and will probably hit around 140M. The Wii just will not sell as long as the PS2. Their are a lot of reasons why.

1. Nintendos next system will be out faster than the PS3 came out after the PS2.
2. Nintendos new system will not be 400 dollars more than the Wii when it launches.
3. Nintendo will kill off the Wii when its next system releases, which won't be bad because it will be backwards compatable and probably only 299.99.
4. The Wii will start to die off in the US and EU fairly soon.
5. PS3 will outsell the PS2 in 2015.

I don't know if everyone has noticed, but the PS3 and 360 are slowly starting to overtake the Wii in the US. The last 2 weeks in a row the 2 of them have outsold the Wii. Back in the PS2's hay day the Xbox and Cube were not doing that. Their was only a brief period when MS dropped the price, and one point when Sony had a cross over problem for fat to slimline. I think we will see the PS3 and 360 each outselling the Wii in the US by the end of next year.

The next place to go over to the HD systems will be EU. I think the PS3 will do the brute of the sales thier, and expect it to start toping Wii by the Summer time if GT5 is out. If GT5 does not come out until fall it could take longer, but with the amount of games developed in EU for the PS3 it may still happen around that time. You have to take into account that Singstar, Buzz, MGS, GT, The Getaway, and Killzone are all very big franchises in EU, and they are also very big fans of the PS EYE.

Japan you never know what they will do next. If the right stuff happened the 360 could all the sudden be number one. The Japanese are a very United bunch, and when they start moving in one direction, it usally pulls everyone in. It could be very possible for Sony to get a big turn around after TGS, but that is TBD.

I say yes.

But basically, it all depends on nintendo - if it starts making 2 millions consoles per month soon, and keep expanding the production with time, wii has a fair chance.

Also, it's possible for nintendo to make price cuts when the sales start falling, i'm guessing that in 2-3 years they could cut the price beneath 100$ mark, and due the uniqueness of the controls, many 360 and PS3 owners would buy them for that price as second console.

Also, a smaller and ultra-slim version could be made later (the only problem which i see are the GC controller ports, which could be solved with some sort of external hub) which would futher reduce production costs and probably result in some re-purchasing.

No...

@ KGB

So what if the 360 & PS3 combined have started to outsell Wii in US.... it's still outselling just the PS3 and the 360... all that means is that Wii domination is starting to calm down... You can't say Wii is going to lose all sales because it suddenly stopped outselling it's 2 competitors combined... and anyway during Xmas it will sell millions so don't worry if it's been going down for a while...

But KGB i agree Wii will not outsell PS2, but I think it could maybe become nintendo's best selling console...(beating the NES at 60 million, I think)

Absolutly not ... only the DS has chance , but the PS2 could sell around 130-135 million consoles , ad I dont see the DS selling more than 100-120 million :) The Wii will reach around 80 million , and same will be with the PS3 ... the X360 will be around 30-35 million IMO .