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Forums - Sales Discussion - Poll: Will the Wii pass the PS2 in sales?

Ishy on 23 August 2007

Yea I agree the DS has a chance... btw PS2 still hasn't outsold the Gameboy...



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Games purchased since December 30th 2006:
GBA:The Legend of Zelda:The Minish Cap
DS:Lunar Knights, Pokemon Diamond, The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass ,Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, Hotel Dusk:Room 215, Mario vs DK 2: March of the Mini's and Picross DS
PS2: Devil May Cry 3:Dante's Awakening, Shadow of the Colosuss, Sega Mega Drive Collection, XIII , Sonic Mega Collection,Fifa 08 and Fifa 09.
GC:Fight Night Round 2
Wii VC:Super Mario 64 ,Lylat Wars ,Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest, Super Castlevania IV, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Streets of Rage, Kirby's Adventure, Super Metroid, Super Mario Bros. 3, Mega Man 2Street Fighter 2 Turbo: Hyper Fighting,Wave Race 64 and Lost Winds

Wii: Sonic and the Secret Rings, Godfather:Blackhand Edition, Red Steel, Tony Hawks Downhill Jam, Eledees, Rayman Raving Rabbids, Mario Strikers Charged Football,Metroid Prime 3: Corruption, Super Mario Galaxy,House of the Dead 2 and 3 Return, Wii Fit, No More Heroes and Super Smash Bros. Brawl.

X360: Spider Man
PS3: Resistance: Fall of Man

 

 

 

 

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stynkkeli on 23 August 2007

The DS has a slim chance. Wii doesn't have chance at all if you think it with a hint of realism. PS2 sales are astronomical.



lvader on 23 August 2007

It won't last as long as the PS2 so has to do it over a much shorter life span, but I think it may have a chance. The thing with the PS2 there aren't really 120M (or what ever the number is) owners out there. lots of early owners will have replaced the old unit with the slim model. There is no need to re designthe Wii it's pretty much a redesigned GC as it is.



Final-Fan on 23 August 2007
KBG29 said:
It will not happen. The PS2 is going to continue to sell well for a few more years, and will probably hit around 140M. The Wii just will not sell as long as the PS2. Their are a lot of reasons why.

1. Nintendos next system will be out faster than the PS3 came out after the PS2.
2. Nintendos new system will not be 400 dollars more than the Wii when it launches.
3. Nintendo will kill off the Wii when its next system releases, which won't be bad because it will be backwards compatable and probably only 299.99.
4. The Wii will start to die off in the US and EU fairly soon.
5. PS3 will outsell the PS2 in 2015.

I don't know if everyone has noticed, but the PS3 and 360 are slowly starting to overtake the Wii in the US. The last 2 weeks in a row the 2 of them have outsold the Wii. Back in the PS2's hay day the Xbox and Cube were not doing that. Their was only a brief period when MS dropped the price, and one point when Sony had a cross over problem for fat to slimline. I think we will see the PS3 and 360 each outselling the Wii in the US by the end of next year.

The next place to go over to the HD systems will be EU. I think the PS3 will do the brute of the sales thier, and expect it to start toping Wii by the Summer time if GT5 is out. If GT5 does not come out until fall it could take longer, but with the amount of games developed in EU for the PS3 it may still happen around that time. You have to take into account that Singstar, Buzz, MGS, GT, The Getaway, and Killzone are all very big franchises in EU, and they are also very big fans of the PS EYE.

Japan you never know what they will do next. If the right stuff happened the 360 could all the sudden be number one. The Japanese are a very United bunch, and when they start moving in one direction, it usally pulls everyone in. It could be very possible for Sony to get a big turn around after TGS, but that is TBD.

1. This is complete speculation, based on the Wii's lesser technological sophistication. Maybe it's true. But it's not a reliable prediction at all.

2. This is a good point, but it doesn't take into accaount that the vast majority of the PS2's sales to date were from before the PS3 launch. I will address your prediction of massive post-PS3 PS2 sales later.

3. Nintendo didn't kill off the Gamecube like MS did the Xbox -- it just died. This is not an unreasonable prediction, but again I see no basis for it.

4. Why do you think this? Without any reason it's just another "The Wii is going to TOTALLY die 6 months from now" prediction.

5. AHAHAHAHAHANO.

I don't know if anyone has noticed, but the Wii hasn't gotten its blockbuster games yet and it's still producing well under demand. Back in the PS2's heyday it wasn't doing that a year after launch, nor selling as quickly. I think we will see the Wii outselling the PS3 and 360 combined, despite stronger sales from both, by the end of next year.



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ElRhodeo on 23 August 2007

It's too early to tell. We're still in the stage of insecurity, just look at comments on VGChartz and elsewhere. When a certain level is reached, nobody will deny any longer that a product is a success (PS2). If Wii manages to get to that point with big 1st party titles, big 3rd party games finally arriving and even more attention on the expanded market (Wii Fit) - anything is possible.



Currently playing: NSMB (Wii) 

Waiting for: Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Wii), The Last Story (Wii), Golden Sun (DS), Portal 2 (Wii? or OSX), Metroid: Other M (Wii), 
... and of course Zelda (Wii) 
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jlauro on 23 August 2007

Add another YES. The biggest problem the wii is facing is production. If Nintendo can't fix that soon, it might not.



etuoyo on 23 August 2007

Definitely not for two reasons. (i) won't be nintendo's main home console for as long as ps2 was sony's main console (ii) nintendo consoles are too reliable will a large number of ps2 sold were replacements for faulty consoles.

DS will probably beat ps2 sales though.



WiteoutKing on 23 August 2007

It has been confirmed that Nintendo is opening up new factories. The problem so far has been getting it built without facing hardware shortages due to worker training.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

finalsquall on 23 August 2007

No! Cause the Wii will die out in 2 yrs and the ps2 will be almost dead by then. And I think the ps3 will out do the ps2 :)



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End of 2011 Sales: Wii = 90mil, 360 = 61mil, PS3= 60mil

WiteoutKing on 23 August 2007

I honestly can't tell if that was sarcasm or delusion. Either way, that bid is a joke, man. At the current rate, the PS3 would be hard pressed to pass 50m, let alone 100m.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007