Ninja Blade did pretty abysmally, so:

First week: 130k
LT: 250k

360 sales in Japan: 18k

First week: 105k
LT: 170k

Why do people expect this to sell that much better than ToV, when the Tales games are more popular in Japan and even Tales of the Abyss sold better than SO3?

First Week: 180k
LTD: 300k

X360 HW: 30k

Hero_Time - Star Ocean 3 sold 533,000 units plus the Director's Cut which sold another 150,000 units...Putting it at 683k LTD which is higher than any other Tales game other than Tales of Destiny 2 for the PS2.

Oh woops, also add another 30k for the Ultimate Hits collection of SO3.

So we have:

Initial release: 533,000
Director's Cut: 146,000
Ultimate Hits: 30,000

FW: 145K
LTD: 220K
HW: 27,5K

wishful thinking...

Most of the people that did buy the director's cut did already own the original, and even if SO3 sold slightly more than TotA, which it dind't, people are are literary puting at almost twice as much as ToV!

I think its going to do surprisingly well.

165k FW
Hardware 35k

This will need decent sales to ensure the game remains exclusive. Crazy for anything to be exclusive these days

Probably because the X360 has sold over 250,000 units since Vesperia launched. The 360 is quite a bit healthier now than what it was when ToV launched.

Feel free to look at the Media Create HW charts that i've built for the 360 since it launched:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pTLj2bA3Ha6v8H7pvGVxdPg

As you can see, the 360 has sold a lot more hardware as of late, and many games are benefitting from it.

I´d say 90k-120k for SO4 first day. For first week I can´t say, it all depends on howsuccessful its intensive marketing is and how much hyped japanese gamers are. It could do from 120k to up 300k first week.

Marketing for this game is big so that is no problem, Yakuza 3 will be the problem as advertising for that game has already started so people might just give SO4 and 360 a miss and get a PS3. Yakuza 3 releases a week later so it is major competition.