Lafiel said:
mrstickball said:
Xen said:
mrstickball said: Everything did horribly. Demon's Souls did ok, I guess. Probably won't reach 50k which is still fairly bad. |
Out of only one reason: 50k weren't shipped. It'll do at least 80k man.
|
No, it won't. With a 23k opening, it will sell between 30k and 35k first week, provided they were able to ship more units to retailers.
And with it opening at 30-35k, how is it going to manage beyond a 2x multiplier? This is Japan were talking about.
This generation, for all 3 consoles (X360, PS3, Wii), the following games managed beyond a 2x multiplier:
- Blue Dragon (X360) - 82k Opening
- Fire Emblem (Wii) - 73k Opening
- Pokemon Battle Revolution (Wii) - 60k Opening
- TES: Oblivion (PS3) - 22.9k Opening
- Enchanted Arms (PS3) - 14.4k Opening
- Argarest Senki (PS3) - 9.0k Opening
Looking at this list, we note that all the PS3 RPG's were below Demon's Souls first day. The rest of the games above it were on other systems.
So it's a pretty safe bet to say that the game will sell between 50k on the low end, and 65k at the very high end.
|
I guess someone is eating his words right now. Sorry for thread-necromancy, but in light of the good sales of Demon's Souls (first PS3 game to ever return to the japanese preliminary top20 after a week of absence) I think this is justified.
|
Wow. That argument was weak. He even conveniently ignored Valkyria Chronicles, depsite the fact that it was right at the 2x mark when he made that post, and was still selling at the time.
Then the anime came along, and that along with a price cut really boosted sales:
http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Japan&game1=Valkyria+Chronicles+-+PS3®2=All&game2=®3=All&game3=&weeks=60
Of course, stickball's general premise was correct. Games outside of Mario Kart and Monster Hunter rarely have legs like Demon's Souls in Japan. The game is enjoying some extremely positive word of mouth, keeping sale afloat.
I probably would've leaned towards his side when he made that post, but probably would've predicted around 100k lifetime for the game in Japan.