I think a lot depends on what Microsoft will announce at GDC and E3 as to how next year will go. This year compared to the last 2 years i think all consoles have a lesser amount of high profile games coming out. If MS come out with some big guns for the early next year i would not be surprised to see sales go even higher for january 2010 and beyond. The thing we know for sure is MS can sell the console cheaper and still make a profit so would expect that to happen at the end of 2009 again. If the financial crisis deepends as expected then that will play into MS hands as well.
The Wii is doing great also. Considering it is down so much in Japan it has space to improve further if things pick up there. Could be a great year for those 2.

Sony on the other hand is down across the board. A price cut will make a big difference for the PS3, would expect it to at least get back on par with last years sales.

very good for SONY's PS3

last year this time it had DMC 4 come out & was coming of a price drop

now it has had no killer games since WKC....there is a huge economic depression....competition has a lower price.

I am glad it is seeing only a decline of 133K

this can be turned around easily.

Given a 1.2M jan, the numbers in the first quoted post are conservative.  1.2M Jan translates into probably close to 17.5 million.

8 months at 1.2 is 9.6M

OCT at 1.5x is 1.8 M

Nov at 2X is 2.4M

Dec and 3x is 3.6M

Total = 17.4M

X360 and Wii both had a good YoY increase and sales for January. X360 price cut works wonders. Wii continues to sell exponentially.
PS3 had a YoY decrease in sales for January. PS3 price cut is over due and bad world economy.

not too long ago....(summer o8)... people were laughing at the idea there could be the possibility of the 360 hitting 50 mil, im going to have to go back and look at my old numbers from the summer and find out were i was but i know it was above 50, and i gave price cuts product revision estimates. 

 Maybe when the "price cut" they can't afford comes, or when KZ2 comes out? Maybe it will move units like GTAIV! Face it, it is selling less this year than it did last year, it sold less this holiday than it did last holiday and will only continue in this trend.

Droping the price of the PS3 probably means that Sony would be tapping into the crowd that was interested in the PS3 but either didn't see it's value at the price before the drop or didn't have a means of getting it. This means the number of people interested in the PS3 isn't changing but that the PS3 is just sucking up only a certain type of water from the ocean.

Not being doomy or gloomy, just that a lower price to boost sales means a higher likely hood of only speeding up saturation.

Hey, back in Summer 2007 I pegged the X360 at 45-50 million, Summer 08 it had increased to 50 million being my probable guess..... now it's between 55 and 60 million.

This little boost it has had is not a life renewal, yes it's doing very well, and 14 million this year is certainly possible (though someones 17+ is way out of reach IMO) but that won't stop it dieing as it gets old in the minds of consumers.... it is pretty much certain to double what the orignal xbox managed, and with only 1.5 times the time on the market, which is excellent going.

Perhaps I am being a little pessimistic just as I was last year, likely because I don't see the appeal of the X360, it is a non-console to me, I defend it on this site a lot because there are a number of delusional PS3 fans who think PS3 is going to rise from the ashes and somehow catch up the the X360 this year, or start claiming that there some kind of huge ravine between the graphical capabilites of the two when tbh most games look almost identical.... but in truth te PS3 is something I would consider buying (if I had no other console and it wasn't so stupidly expensive) wheras the X360 I could barely name 10 games I would buy even if I had a list of them in front of me.

So perhaps I am pessimistic, but I can tell you it will not be selling reasonable numbers like 6 million in 2012 unless there has still not been a new console out, and certainly won't sell 12 million in the years after that because there will be at least 1 new console out by the end of 2012 if it hadn't happened already.

that better.

TWroo this is hitting 60m.

it will be at 40m end of this year. thats 40m in 4 years. or 10m Avg earliest we will see next gen console is 2011. so with 2 more full years untile next gen it will be high 50's and it will continue to sell 100X better than Xbox 1 after next gen starts.

heck next gen mighten start till 2012 then thast 3 full years after this one.

microsoft can make mini 360 model's which they never did with xbox 1. $99 price point for arcade when next gen starts $79 after that.

i am 100% certain that there is no way this will not hit 60m with all the selling potential.

^That is a more reasonable scenario, yes I agree 60 million is possible, but I would put it around the middle of my expectations, so the X360 will finish with about 60 (55-65) million if trends remain the same.

The possibility of it going higher or lower than 55-65 depends mostly on the PS3, and in some part the Wii..... if the PS3 doesn't "renew" itself within 12-15 months the X360 could reach the heady heights of 70 million (but still not much more) with the PS3 not continuing for very long and lounging around 40-45 million.

If the PS3 gains a bit of momentum this year, and perhaps rolls into next year with weekly sales exceeding the X360 again, and then doesn't stop there, I think the X360 will stop short of 55 million, likely around 50 million, with the PS3 catching it (eventually) and making around 55-60 million.