By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official July (USA) NPD Thread (Data should be in by 6:30 PM August 23)

reverie said:
Thanks Erik, Thanks KruzeS! This needs to be pointed out.

But remembering the nasty E-Mails ioi received from NPD, I think it's not beyond those NPD guys to skew their numbers just enough to make VGChartz look bad. Over the years NPD have probably published almost as many corrections to their numbers as they have published original sales reports which gave me the impression that their own numbers are not sacred to them as they should be. Every month that VGChartz sticks around will put pressure on NPD to improve their quality.

Heh, sometimes I wonder about that. And also whether system biases ever creep in at NPD. For example, if there is ever say, a big fanboy who directly works the numbers at NPD, why couldn't he skew the numbers for his favorite up?

Anddo you ever see a number very close to 100k up or down, say 199k or 200k, and wonder if somebody pushed the number just a little bit one way or another, to make that system look good or bad? Like, maybe it was 199k, and somebody just pushed it up that little bit to make the so much better looking 200k? Or the reverse if they didnt like the system in question?

We just have to trust that they are professionals who just handle the numbers without bias. I think they are, not because they're good guys necessarily, some aren't judginng from those emails, but because it's their job and clients pay big dollars for those numbers to be accurate.



Around the Network
sharky said:

Heh, sometimes I wonder about that. And also whether system biases ever creep in at NPD. For example, if there is ever say, a big fanboy who directly works the numbers at NPD, why couldn't he skew the numbers for his favorite up?

Anddo you ever see a number very close to 100k up or down, say 199k or 200k, and wonder if somebody pushed the number just a little bit one way or another, to make that system look good or bad? Like, maybe it was 199k, and somebody just pushed it up that little bit to make the so much better looking 200k? Or the reverse if they didnt like the system in question?

We just have to trust that they are professionals who just handle the numbers without bias. I think they are, not because they're good guys necessarily, some aren't judginng from those emails, but because it's their job and clients pay big dollars for those numbers to be accurate.


Do you really think someone is going to risk federal prison just because they are a fan of a console? This is serious business. Nobody is going to risk their entire life on a fanboy whim. 



sharky said:
reverie said:
Thanks Erik, Thanks KruzeS! This needs to be pointed out.

But remembering the nasty E-Mails ioi received from NPD, I think it's not beyond those NPD guys to skew their numbers just enough to make VGChartz look bad. Over the years NPD have probably published almost as many corrections to their numbers as they have published original sales reports which gave me the impression that their own numbers are not sacred to them as they should be. Every month that VGChartz sticks around will put pressure on NPD to improve their quality.

Heh, sometimes I wonder about that. And also whether system biases ever creep in at NPD. For example, if there is ever say, a big fanboy who directly works the numbers at NPD, why couldn't he skew the numbers for his favorite up?

Anddo you ever see a number very close to 100k up or down, say 199k or 200k, and wonder if somebody pushed the number just a little bit one way or another, to make that system look good or bad? Like, maybe it was 199k, and somebody just pushed it up that little bit to make the so much better looking 200k? Or the reverse if they didnt like the system in question?

We just have to trust that they are professionals. I think they are.


Personally, I'm always a little skeptical of firms that seem to have little to no competition in their field. Nielsen in the US is a good example - their methods for measuring TV viewership are archaic, but due to a symbiotic relationship with the television industry, they have virtually no competition. There's been very little pressure on them to change with the times. 

All in all, VGChartz is a performing a great service if for no other reason than it forces NPD to self-improve- their move to track online sales is a great example. I wish there was another company, or someone in the media like Famitsu in Japan, that would do the same thing. More sources never hurt.  



Hey anyone know when the Worldwide comparison figures for last week will come out? they were up for 2 weeks ago...



Cant wait till Assassins Creed!

FishyJoe said:
I'm wondering if online sales may account for some of the discrepancy. Perhaps Wii's sell at a better pace online because once they get in stock, they sell out immediately. Since this is the first time NPD has accounted for online sales, that could explain the difference.

If adding up new sources leads to such a dramatic change, that doesn't say much of the quality of the numbers in the first place. The Wii saw a 33% increase over June with nothing big to report!



Reality has a Nintendo bias.
Around the Network

I'm not sure if this has been posted....

Sony responds to NPD figures

 

Sony Defeats Truman 

This just in from video-game reporting headquarters: Sony may be a consumer electronics giant, but its public relations folks aren’t so powerful when it comes to prognostication. Yesterday, said spinsters made a bold prediction about sales figures for video game consoles that were due out today. Sony said it was confident the figures would show that in July its PlayStation 3 outsold the Xbox 360, made by its chief rival, Microsoft.
The actual figures from NPD Group, a market research firm, did not bear this out. Sony came in third, behind the still piping-hot Nintendo Wii and Sony’s aforementioned chief thorn-in-side, Microsoft.

For the record, NPD reported domestic sales of 425,000 Nintendo Wiis, 170,000 Xbox 360s and 159,000 PlayStation 3s in July. Dave Karraker, the Sony spokesman who predicted the PS3 would overtake the 360, told me that: (1) He was only wrong by a bit, and (2) NPD doesn’t provide an exact count but estimates some portions of the market and (3) No, he would not care to make a prediction about August’s sales figures.

The results, in fairness to Sony, do represent a marked improvement relative to Microsoft. In June, PS3 sales were roughly half of Xbox 360’s 200,000.

Could it be that Sony’s price cut has shaken loose consumer demand?
While Microsoft and Sony battled it out for second place in the next-generation console competition, Nintendo continues to ride its less powerful processor, simpler graphics and gyration-inspiring game controller to fad-defying results. Nintendo’s July sales bested its June figures by around 50,000 units, further stumping analysts and video game software companies who keep waiting for the Wii to peter out.
At this point, predicting a quick demise for the Wii might not be the wisest maneuver; it’s something even the folks at Sony wouldn’t attempt — at least not this month.

P.S. The overall game market is on the mend, in a big way. Through July, domestic sales of hardware, software and accessories were $7 billion, up from $5 billion for the first seven months of 2006, NPD reported.

 



We don't provide the 'easy to program for' console that they [developers] want, because 'easy to program for' means that anybody will be able to take advantage of pretty much what the hardware can do, so the question is what do you do for the rest of the nine and half years? It's a learning process. - SCEI president Kaz Hirai

It's a virus where you buy it and you play it with your friends and they're like, "Oh my God that's so cool, I'm gonna go buy it." So you stop playing it after two months, but they buy it and they stop playing it after two months but they've showed it to someone else who then go out and buy it and so on. Everyone I know bought one and nobody turns it on. - Epic Games president Mike Capps

We have a real culture of thrift. The goal that I had in bringing a lot of the packaged goods folks into Activision about 10 years ago was to take all the fun out of making video games. - Activision CEO Bobby Kotick

 

Whats the margin of error of NPD?

Just out of interest



I don't think NPD executives would change the numbers because they like or dislike one system (they might, however, do that to hurt their competition which is VGChartz). Some of their minions or retail partners or retail partners' minionsmight do that, or just count sloppy. If NPD really count the majority of sales in North America, 1000s of people are involved in the process, and I'm not sure if NPD is checking and rechecking every data point they collect the way they should.

FishyJoe,
Why would publishing crappy or fixed statistics be a federal crime?



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

Dolla Dolla said:
Amazon set us up the bomb!

 

Maybe people will finally realize that Amazon is a poor indicator for everything except how well stuff is selling on amazon.  There is a reason real tracking takes many different stores in many different locations.

Dolla Dolla said:
Amazon set us up the bomb!

 

Maybe people will finally realize that Amazon is a poor indicator for everything except how well stuff is selling on amazon.  There is a reason real tracking takes many different stores in many different locations.