Considering the install base and the lack of quality games recently, the Conduit really should sell 4m+ if it's a ~85% on metacritic game. But it won't.....

Its very likely. Both games have a major publisher behind them, The Conduit has a decent amount of hype, online and is of a very popular genre while both games are looking to be of good quality. House of the Dead Overkill will be important too. If they fail then kiss hardcore game goodbye. The smaller games like De Blob may still appear but titles like GTA etc will never appear. They all sell well enough on the HD machines.

So, some of you are trying to tell me that if The Conduit (for instance) flops, the dev's will keep making games like it on the Wii that won't move instead of moving it to the 360 (for instance) and probably sell a whole lot more despite the lower install base.
Install base be damned, if there are 50 million people not buying your games versus 30 (or 50 million if you count the PS3 as well) million which will, it really is a no brainer for most dev's.
To state and think otherwise shows a disappointing grasp on logic imo.

Look almost1 million bought Shawn White Snowboarding. There is a core audience, casuals dk who SW is. Over 600k bought COD in the last few months, again this is clear as day evidence that things are changing, core games are making profit faster.

It certainly won't encourage developers if they bomb to hell, but the Wii's lead is too hard to ignore for some. Most of the games announced so far won't sell much, like Muramasa (even if it looks pretty sick). I dunno, we'll see.

 Nobody knows who Shawn White is.  But casuals surely know that playing a snowboarding game on a balance board (or wiimote) has good potential to be fun.   I find Wii games really sell strongly on word-of-mouth.   And from my friends who own Wiis, I'm hearing Shaun White is a hell of a lot of fun via word of mouth from people they know.  CoDWaW is increasing in sales the same way - a lot of fun, easy to play, great word of mouth.   Skate It - too much of a learning curve - and sales reflect that, so the Wii base is NOT that core really.

On Topic:  Poor sales for these games will discourage 3rd parties but MadWorld is not that important.  It's from the makers of Okami who have a track record of making great games that don't sell.    Conduit, IF it's highly rated and flops will definately make publishers wary.

However, neither of these games are as important as Red Steel 2.   And if Matt C from IGN is right and EA has a couple of 'core' game coming those will be more important than these two as well.   But Red Steel is already an established platinium seller on Wii.  If an improved RS with MW+ can't sell - then the general feeling will be nothing ever will.

Their chances of flopping are so slim. Sega has already stated they will heavily market both titles and that's where you make or break a Wii game.

There are also several projects already in development or planned that simply cannot be stopped just because one or both of those Sega projects falters.

We'll still get mature themed games regardless of the outcome of those two properties because the size of the install base has to much potential and their will always be a HVS-like developer/publisher looking to take a chance.

The Conduit means nothing outside of these forums. To be honest, I don't get what's so hardcore about FPS #1916722648898574. It seems the criteria here for hardcore games is having a gun shooting people, which is a shame.

The Wii is looking good in 09-10 with or without these games.

Might want to look at some other forums.  It's not just hyped here.

You also have to consider that there are publishers you have admitted that The Conduit is there market baraometer for Wii.

I fully agree with your last part though.  Plenty of other games that have core gameplay and themes aside from The Conduit.

 I would look at COD WAW for a comparison for Conduit its at 650k WW right now and COD games have great legs. of course if mom and dad by it for thier kid and he pops it in and the 1st minute of the game 2 F bombs are dropped may hurt cod waw sales.

But if the Conduit goes off with 500k that would be a success development cost on the wii are less then dev cost's on the ps360pc.

and if the engine is marketable for other games High octane will win.

I just say a name like COD waw and its sales on 360 alone a console with less install base then Wii. I Waw is only selling 650k how will a new IP do better???

only if it gets a 10 and is pulse pounding awesome will it sell better. and with KZ2 coming out its hard to imagine.