His predictions tend to alternate between common sense and moronically insane ... This is one of his more common sense predictions.

The first wave of larger budget third party titles on the Wii will begin to show up in the middle of 2009 and continue to the middle of 2010. Assuming that publishers support these projects with decent marketing this should translate into decent sales (possibly at the expense of older Nintendo game sales).

Wow Mr.Patcher. Really? Is that what you think....? IT Doesn't Matter what your ThiNK!

Oh wow. I wasn't expecting a very high quality post when I saw your avatar in a Wii thread, but this is just incredible.

Do you realize how long it takes to make a good games? At least a year in most cases, and often closer to two. Third parties were initially extremely skeptical of the Wii, but have been coming around as the console asserts its sales dominance. Games have been getting better over time, and a quick glace at the 2009 release list proves it to be the best so far.

And yes, I know there isn't a single game on the list that interests you. There isn't a single game that interests me coming on the PS3 this year, but that's how it works. Exclusive games for a system that I have no plans of getting in the foreseeable future has to be very, very good to catch my attention, but it doesn't mean that I can't acknowledge them to be good.

We'll definitely see third party sales up, albeit Nintendo really haven't released a big seller in a while (Animal Crossing I guess). But yeah, I'd expect Nintendo's line up to be very strong this year, which could hurt third parties.

Third parties will see more sales, what they'll be selling exactly I'm not sure. Eastern developers trying to make gamer games seem to be snubbed by the Japanese audience and iffy in the west, and the west just want to keep putting out MySims spin offs, cash in on the fitness market and more minigames stuff.

Will be interesting to see what's announced this year to be honest, hmm. I still think Nintendo will get near enough 50% of the software sales :(.

If there is one thing I learned from this ongoing recession, that is: avoid the analysts.

thats his first reasonable prediction

Given that I think Patcher is always wrong. Does this imply that 2009 is not the year of third parties on the Wii?

Damn you Patcher. Why did you have to go on and do that?

well in my book, the non-shovelware original third parties so far are...

elebits
rayman raving rabbids
no more heroes
sack and wiki
boom blocks
mario and sonic at the olympic games


upcoming possabilites for this year...

deadly creatures
little kings story
conduit
boom blocks 2
mario and sonic at the winter games

December 2006 was the year of third pirates but the first ninjas beat them then and in 2007 and in 2008 and wait did the third parties claim higher share in December 2008?

I'll say that third parties are bringing a lot of old audience content to the Wii hardware, I'd love to see these titles take a step to the left because the hardware is a step to the left in stead of head on combat with redundancy with more complex controls to garner more options.

If third parties overwhelm Nintendo with their best content and a lot of it, I can see share shifting to them as a whole.

Currently Sega seems to be the one in position to really push a lot of content on the Wii platform... if that content is marketable then they are in a good spot to single-handedly claim upwards of 12% market share on their own. (If the M&S Olympics 2 isn't a rumor.)

What I believe Nintendo or Sega could do though, is make a Mario/Sega Music/Paint in 2009 also a Mario/Sonic fitness game would seem right up their alley. If Sega does this first, then they are definetly on their way to claim some heavy share.

(I could actually see something where I compete against Sonic as my Mii in the long jump or track and field as a possibility.)

2008 didn't even see a Mario Party.

But I'll agree with you guys and say Pachter is playing catchup.

Kotaku did an analysis of his claims and he's right 60% of the time, which makes him the (joint) most accurate analyst (with a couple of others). The thing is, most of his claims are either so general or common-sense they're hard to be wrong. The other 40% are the ones we laugh at all the time.