Wouldn't the PS3 be the canary? If people are still buying consoles, but substituting the more expensive PS3s for the less expensive Xbox 360s and Wiis it shows that is the first stage of being effected by the crisis of credit? Its the first console which has shown any significant changes due to the recession.

The thing is, we don't really know how many people would have chosen the 360 anyway even if the recession hadn't hit. It's not that clear cut.

This all stems from the idea that casuals are the undesireable customers. They aren't, they're different customers.

If anything, the more expensive a good is, the more vulnerable to recession it is.

Exactly.

Im sorry, but this is clearly more a case of price point saturation. combined with training customers to anticipate a yearly price drop. the recession may be slowing it more then it already was hindered but those two points are by far the leaders of the pack in stymieing PS3 sales 

Isn't the first step in analysis finding where the data correlates so that further analysis can find the causation of the trends?

The PS3 sales are a point of interest, and so are the Xbox 360 sales. We can see with the Xbox 360 SKU sales that people are substituting the less expensive Arcade SKUs for the more expensive Premium SKUs so their price sensitivy could be said to have markedly increased.

Holiday 08 says hi. Wonder who it hit the hardest?

All of these analysis still fall before the fact that Nintendo has quite a bit of latitude with the Wii, far more than Microsoft or Sony. Sony's sales are slipping, and yet Sony can do nothing (cut costs to boost sales but aggravate division losses, or wait until the model reaches profitability as sales dwindle), and if the same thing happened to Microsoft, they would be in a similar position (given that the evidence shows that Microsoft is no longer willing to bleed as much money as they need to in order to get the sales in the Games Division). Nintendo could be primed for new price-drops, new bundles, new colors, as well as the new tech coming around the corner.

I would imagine they are ready for any contingency.

Lately I've been seeing lots of articles talking not very good things about the Wii. For example:

- The Wii bubble is about to explote (http://ecetia.com/2009/01/31/la-burbuja-wii-esta-a-punto-de-explotar/). It says Nintendo has reduced its predictions, their stokes fall and demand has decreased a lot in Japan.

- Xtreme (Spanish videogame magazine) gives Animal Crossing only a 62 in its review this month Some interesting quotes are: "this is the least sincere Nintendo superproduction since its rebirth" or "AC is a product of the apathy already chronicle of Nintendo, very certain in its strictly commercial movements, but each day more far away of its real and faithful niche. Remember: the crowd mainstream is mayfly. Be conscious".

- "The Wii 2 to cause games industry to crash" (http://www.gameplayer.com.au/gp_documents/Industry-Crash.aspx). This is a bit catastrophic but interesting article IMO.

So, Wii problems won't only be caused by the crisis.