Nothing currently announced has much of a chance at AAA, MadWorld being the only exception.

Unfortunately it will be Wii Sports Resort.

:(

Khuutra: I'm not exactly comparing The Conduit to Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, but the fact that it has set the bar for FPS games implies a great example of what it takes for AAA territory.

ok, from an outsiders perspective on this:

Monster Hunter 3 - has no chance, like all the MH games before it as gameplay won't change drastically

Madworld - good production values and will certainly score high, but it's "over 90%" chances are slim in my opinion

The Conduit - devs seemingly can't go all that wrong with fps games, so I see this really having a chance

Pikmin 3 - definately has a chance

Deadly Creatures - no

Wii Sports Resort - there is no help for people that think this has a chance considering the taste of reviewers

Punch Out - no idea

Sin & Punishment 2 - from what I know the last on-rail-shooter that got 90% on average is Panzer Dragoon Orta and back then the genre had far better reputation .. I don't think we will ever see an "AAA" on-rail-shooter again

Fair enough, fair enough.

I would hope that Muramasa: The Demon Blade or Little King's Story would be able to make it, but I know all reviewers are Philistines from my experience with Odin Sphere...!

I've said this before and I'll say it again:

AAA is not determined by metacritic. AAA stands for games that are the top priority for developers and publishers, so will have the highest budgets, most advertising and best development teams. In short: the #1 products of the industry.

So StreetFighter IV is automatically an AAA game, no matter what the review scores are. The Conduit is not AAA even if it gets 100's across the board. The sequel could in that case be considered AAA.

The next AAA game on Wii will be one of Nintendo's own games. Probably Zelda.

Madworld no doubts

I tend to agree with this definition more, but if we're going with it then the answer is one hundred percent Wii Sports Resort.

MadWorld - based on the fact it comes from the makers of Okami has a good chance at 90%. But then again, by that logic it has a good chance of commercial failure too...

Sin & Punishment maybe

Monster Hunter is unlikely

Tenchu - no.
Conduit - No chance! IGN might but other sites will compare it against Killzone 2 and Gears 2 and find it lacking. I expect low 80's.
Punchout - not likely considering who's making it but should be fun to play.

Tiger Woods '10 - Hell yeah, IF they nail WM+ plus all the greatness that was in '09, maybe balance board to even better read your swing...

PES ' 09 - maybe

HoTD: Overkill - why not?

GTA III - Wii Compliation - Definate 90's.  If we ever see such a thing.

Now watch us all be wrong and it turns out to be Sonic & the Black Knight

@ BengaBenga )

correct, but at this point most people already have adopted the metacritic definition *sigh*