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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Who thinks there will be no PS4?

markers on 28 January 2009

ps4 ftw!



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Final-Fan on 28 January 2009

Dianko said:
I say no PS4. 4 is an unlucky number in Japan (like 13 in the west), so they'll call it something else.
Maybe, but I understand it's simply unlucky because it's pronounced "shi", which is the same way they say "death". In fact there's a whole alternate word (yon) for the number four to avoid saying "shi".

Anyway, my point is that it seems possible that it might be OK if they use the English word "four". Can any Japanese speakers give their opinions about this, or at least tell me if I'm totally wrong or not?

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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O-D-C on 28 January 2009

Right now Im douting it-ish.

Unsure.



Gilgamesh on 28 January 2009
NJ5 said:

I'd guess a 75% probability there will be a PS4. If it does happen, it will be after a massive restructuring and change of strategy at Sony's gaming division.

The reason is simply that their strategy doesn't work anymore. The Playstation consoles have always relied on third party exclusives, even though Sony has a lot of good 1st party games. Microsoft came and stole that advantage by being richer than Sony, and this means Sony has to find other methods to bring in gamers.

First of all, say goodbye to the loss-leading model. Losing anything more than a few tens of dollars per console is not acceptable with the competition Sony has. They need breathing room to allow for unforeseeable low demand and high competition.

Second, they need to be more innovative. Differentiate themselves using gaming features, not media center ones. If they can't do this for the PS4, they might as well not launch a console as the Playstation brand won't save the PS4 as much as it saved the PS3.

Third, they need to stop acting as if they're still the leader of the console market. Many of their developers are too slow to release games, and that only works when those games aren't needed on a timely basis to prop up sales. The purpose of first party developers is to build up the userbase before 3rd parties are on board, and in this regard Sony's 1st parties have failed (I am thinking especially of GT5's absence here).

In any case, the biggest threat to the existence of a PS4 is the ongoing recession and resulting economic troubles at Sony. In a few years Sony may be a very different company due to this, so many of our assumptions may become irrelevant.

 

The strategy that Sony had for Playstation has been the same for PS1 and PS2 but PS3 was different they decided to change there strategy and go BIG, so I'd say there going to go back to there old strategy that they had for the PS1 and 2, make something simple, cheap and plays great games.

@aher052

The PS3 has been out for 2 years and 2 months ;)



Goodfella on 28 January 2009

There's no need for PS4 atm. It's inevitable however.




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NJ5 on 28 January 2009
Gilgamesh said:

The strategy that Sony had for Playstation has been the same for PS1 and PS2 but PS3 was different they decided to change there strategy and go BIG, so I'd say there going to go back to there old strategy that they had for the PS1 and 2, make something simple, cheap and plays great games.

@aher052

The PS3 has been out for 2 years and 2 months ;)

You're right, there was some change in strategy for the PS3, but that was mainly in the hardware camp. On the software side, the strategy is pretty much the same as the PS2's (good 1st party games + flagship exclusive or timed-exclusive 3rd party titles like GTA and FF... which as we know Microsoft successfully convinced companies to make multi-plats).

 



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markers on 28 January 2009
Gilgamesh said:
NJ5 said:

I'd guess a 75% probability there will be a PS4. If it does happen, it will be after a massive restructuring and change of strategy at Sony's gaming division.

The reason is simply that their strategy doesn't work anymore. The Playstation consoles have always relied on third party exclusives, even though Sony has a lot of good 1st party games. Microsoft came and stole that advantage by being richer than Sony, and this means Sony has to find other methods to bring in gamers.

First of all, say goodbye to the loss-leading model. Losing anything more than a few tens of dollars per console is not acceptable with the competition Sony has. They need breathing room to allow for unforeseeable low demand and high competition.

Second, they need to be more innovative. Differentiate themselves using gaming features, not media center ones. If they can't do this for the PS4, they might as well not launch a console as the Playstation brand won't save the PS4 as much as it saved the PS3.

Third, they need to stop acting as if they're still the leader of the console market. Many of their developers are too slow to release games, and that only works when those games aren't needed on a timely basis to prop up sales. The purpose of first party developers is to build up the userbase before 3rd parties are on board, and in this regard Sony's 1st parties have failed (I am thinking especially of GT5's absence here).

In any case, the biggest threat to the existence of a PS4 is the ongoing recession and resulting economic troubles at Sony. In a few years Sony may be a very different company due to this, so many of our assumptions may become irrelevant.

 

The strategy that Sony had for Playstation has been the same for PS1 and PS2 but PS3 was different they decided to change there strategy and go BIG, so I'd say there going to go back to there old strategy that they had for the PS1 and 2, make something simple, cheap and plays great games.

@aher052

The PS3 has been out for 2 years and 2 months ;)

 

so to go back to the 'old stragety' make the ps4 two ps3's duct taped together and its good to go?



Zomb1337 on 28 January 2009

PS3, 360 & Wii will all make profit overall before they are killed off.



PREDICTIONS:
(Predicted on 5/31/11) END of 2011 Sales - Xbox 360 = 62M;  PS3 = 59M;  Wii = 97M

amirnetz on 28 January 2009

OK. I am going to be the odd man out.

I say no PS4. The problem: there will be no new gen.

A new gen means a market reset. The cards are reshuffled and anyone can win. This is great for the existing losers. Bad for the current leaders. The leaders have the interest to prolonged the gen as much as possible. Forever is a good timeframe as far as they are concerned. The larger the install base, the more money they make.

At this point, the only platform who would love to have a "do over" is Sony. Everybody else found a successful business model that makes them healthy amounts of money and none of them would like to risk it.

So can Sony do a new gen all alone? NO.

The current HD gen can support excellent titles and with evolutionary improvements to the HW can move forward towards 3DTV, IPTV, DVR and motion controls without changing the foundemental architecture. You will see a Mark II, Mark III etc to the platform, but no disruptive departure from the current architecture.

As far as the developers are concerned it is best to be able to sell to a large install base. A reset and a new gen is bad for them as well. There is just no good reason for them to support a new Sony platform. The cost of current HD titles is already immense and the only way to recup the costs is to sell to a huge base. A new platform will be even more demanding than the current gen and development cost will be even higher and at the same time the installed base will be minimal. Just bad for them all around.

So the potential PS4 will cost much more than the current gen units, will burden Sony with Billions of R&D costs and will have little to no title support.

Even Sony will be able to see that such a PS4 will never make it money. So why start heading down that road?



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

BenVTrigger on 28 January 2009

well a home console with the name sony on it selling only 45 million would be far from a huge success, especially after what it did with the PS2.

But there will of course be a PS4 and anyone who says there won't be is probably just having some wishful thinking.