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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Who thinks there will be no PS4?

Quickdraw McGraw on 28 January 2009
NJ5 said:

I'd guess a 75% probability there will be a PS4. If it does happen, it will be after a massive restructuring and change of strategy at Sony's gaming division.

The reason is simply that their strategy doesn't work anymore. The Playstation consoles have always relied on third party exclusives, even though Sony has a lot of good 1st party games. Microsoft came and stole that advantage by being richer than Sony, and this means Sony has to find other methods to bring in gamers.

First of all, say goodbye to the loss-leading model. Losing anything more than a few tens of dollars per console is not acceptable with the competition Sony has. They need breathing room to allow for unforeseeable low demand and high competition.

Second, they need to be more innovative. Differentiate themselves using gaming features, not media center ones. If they can't do this for the PS4, they might as well not launch a console as the Playstation brand won't save the PS4 as much as it saved the PS3.

Third, they need to stop acting as if they're still the leader of the console market. Many of their developers are too slow to release games, and that only works when those games aren't needed on a timely basis to prop up sales. The purpose of first party developers is to build up the userbase before 3rd parties are on board, and in this regard Sony's 1st parties have failed (I am thinking especially of GT5's absence here).

In any case, the biggest threat to the existence of a PS4 is the ongoing recession and resulting economic troubles at Sony. In a few years Sony may be a very different company due to this, so many of our assumptions may become irrelevant.

 

Very good post.

I'd say the chances are higher, given that the PlayStation brand is still one of their most recognizable, and up until recently, successful brands. But you're absolutely right, with the economic conditions, predictions are rather useless.



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Jackson50 on 28 January 2009

Sony will release a PS4.



KBG29 on 28 January 2009

It would blow me away if there was not a PS4 or new console from Sony in the future. They may have to tone back the perfomance improvments, and bring somthing cheaper out, but I am sure it will happen. They could probably get away cheap by just sticking with the same Cell, a new GPU, and stuffing it full of RAM, as that is the biggest limiting factor in the PS3.



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RCTjunkie on 28 January 2009

1. Doughting?
2. There will be a PS4. the 10-year plan will surely make enough money for them, right?



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Dianko on 28 January 2009

I say no PS4. 4 is an unlucky number in Japan (like 13 in the west), so they'll call it something else.



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MaxwellGT2000 on 28 January 2009

Well when PS3 was announced they said a little something about the next console not being called the PS4 so maybe no PS4 but a new Sony console for sure :P



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NJ5 on 28 January 2009
Final-Fan said:

Holy crap NJ5 changed his avatar!!!

I did indeed ;)

RCTjunkie said:
1. Doughting?
2. There will be a PS4. the 10-year plan will surely make enough money for them, right?

I don't think the PS4 is that much dependent on the PS3 making a net profit. If it is, I think you can kiss it goodbye since the PS3 would have to bring in more profit than the PS2 did in order to break even, let alone bring a healthy return. I suppose you've seen the infamous table with historical profitability data for Nintendo/SCE/MS's Entertainment division?

But as I said, IMO the existence of a PS4 is more dependent on Sony's health/priorities as a whole. That's the big unknown for the future.

Dianko said:
I say no PS4. 4 is an unlucky number in Japan (like 13 in the west), so they'll call it something else.

I have to agree with this too, besides what you said it starts getting a bit tiring after 3. I'm not good at guessing names though, so for now I'll just call it PS4.

 



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GamingChartzFTW on 28 January 2009
RCTjunkie said:
1. Doughting?
2. There will be a PS4. the 10-year plan will surely make enough money for them, right?

 

There won't be a "10 year plan success" if someone releases a new console in 4-5 years.

Lifespan statements is just company rhetorics.

PS3 is not the PS2



RED53DEVILS on 28 January 2009

definetly there will be



Daddo Splat on 28 January 2009

bluray will be affordable the cell is going to be used with more spu's and a more powerful gpu more memmory but cost will be down probably be around the $400.00 PRICE POINT MAX. at launch as long as bluray comes down the most expensive could be the cpu and gpu and the cell is already developed so they would need a better gpu and bam 3-4 years out and they could sell it for a profit out the door. and why develope PSN and HOME if your calling it quits?????