In the last analysts teleconference Sony had reiterated its forecast of Selling 10M PS3 units during its fiscal year (April 2008 - March 2009).

Going by the VGC numbers, Sony had so far sold 8.4M units in the period of April 1st 2008 to January 17th 2009.

This leaves Sony with the challenge of Selling 1.6M units till March 31st, a total of 10.5 weeks. In order to make its goals Sony will need to sell a weekly average of 152K units.

Going by last week's sales numbers with WW sales of 152K units, Sony can be seen as exactly on track to make these goals .

That said, Sony should not be complacent. January is typically a stronger month than February and March as it still enjoys the xmas left-overs in the form of xmas gift-cards and retailers post-holiday sales. Feb-Mar are sleeper months and in this economy people are looking much less for expensive gadgets than they were in yester-years. With no big releases coming for the next 6 weeks (until KZ2) there is a real danger of further market cooling and sales dropping well below the 152K weekly level.

What do you think - is Sony on track?

Big Japan releases and Killzone 2 will make it happen.

I think so especailly with KZ2 on the way and it being bundled in Europe im sure it will move some hardware.

It relies on K2 being a much bigger hardware driver than R2, LBP etc. So my guess is no.

Piece of cake for Sony.

lol i admire your optimism!

on topic, as of now, they are on track. Also they have not lowered their PS3 sales expectations yet for the quarter according to their recent forecast revision release.

As for what will happen next week and beyond I have no idea.

I'd like to side with The on this occasion, I just hope my optimism isn't misplaced by reality in the coming weeks.

Hmmm they may fall a little short but I don't see it as a significant issue for them. The real issue is the fact that PS2 sales are down significantly from last year.

I think with Yakuza 3 spiking the PS3 in Japan and KZ2 spiking it in EU, the PS3 could hold at 150k weekly average.

It will be close.

January 21 - Skate 2 (NA)
January 23 - Skate 2 (EU)
February 5 - Demon's Soul (JP)
February 10 - F.E.A.R. 2: Project Origin (NA)
February 12 - Street Fighter IV (JP)
February 13 - F.E.A.R. 2: Project Origin (EU)
February 13 - Eternal Sonata (EU)
February 13 - SOCOM: U.S. Navy SEALs Confrontation (EU)
February 17 - Street Fighter IV (NA)
February 19 - Sonic Unleashed (JP)
February 20 - Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice (EU)
February 20 - Street Fighter IV (EU)
February 24 - The Godfather II (NA)
February 26 - Yakuza 3 (JP)
February 27 - Killzone 2 (NA/EU)
February 27 - The Godfather II (EU)
March 3 - MLB 08: The Show (NA)
March 5 - Resident Evil 5 (JP)
March 12 - Warriors Orochi Z (JP)
March 13 - Resident Evil 5 (NA/EU)

Weekly sales have just evened out so if Sony can manage to stay the course like they have been so far, they'll scrape by.

America and Others will be hard to maintain, but big releases such as Killzone 2 (+Europe Bundle) and Resident Evil 5 should keep PS3 just above where they need to be in these regions.

Sony's best hope comes from Japan. Between big releases such as Demon's Soul, Yakuza 3 and Resident Evil 5 along with three bundles (RE5, Yakuza 3 and FFVII:ACC) Sony should definitely perform better there than they did last Q1.

I think it's worth reminding that Sony definitely doesn't HAVE to sell 150,000 every week. The release weeks of Killzone 2, Resident Evil 5 and Final Fantasy VII: Advent Children Complete will almost definitely have Sony well above 150,000 which will offset weeks where they dip under, and there will definitely be weeks like that.

10mil will be passed by the end of the FY no matter what.