The highest year for hardware is generally the 3rd year (ie 2008)
The highest year for software is generally the 4th or sometimes 5th year (2009/2010)

A November '10 release of the 720 is possible

If Microsoft was releasing a console in 2009 we would know by now ...

If Microsoft was planning on releasing a console in 2010 there would be developers who were receiving development kits soon, and we would have tons of rumours about Microsoft releasing a console in 2010 ...

The 360's victory margin over the PS3 has been decreasing every week since the beginning of the year, and the PSP may outsell the 360 worldwide this week. It is going to be very close between those two for third.

So far it is up YoY. Only a couple weeks in though.

well if your referring to good games, 2008 was the last great year. 2009 will be good with RE5, Bioshock 2, ME2, Splinter Cell, and Halo Wars leading the way.

      When did you know that the 360 was coming out?  Most people didn't know before GDC 2005 or the MTV Special a couple of months later.  I don't remember there being any mention of a new xbox in any publications that I read that were talking about games like Stranger's Wrath or Jade Empire when they were first released.  And there was no information about a year earlier when Halo 2 released in November of 2004.  The biggest XBox news that I remember from that time was that Halo 2 was releasing and that Ninja Gaiden Black and Half-Life 2 were coming to the original xbox in '05.

That's because in January 2008, 360 sales were down due to the introduction of new PS3 skus

Even if the 360 manages to be slightly up YoY for the first half, it will be sharply down YoY come the 1 year anniversary of the price cut

I don't care. I'll buy whatever the best console is at the time, plus the Nintendo console. Right now, it's the Xbox 360 in all reality. When that changes, I'll drop it like a rock. It's not like I really care that much about the price. I'm a grown ass man. My shoes cost more than the Playstation 3. It's just Sony's attitude that pisses me off. Stubborn-ness is not a cute virtue.

2012 at the earliest. I don't think console manufacturers can easily persuade third party studios to invest in new technology before 2011-2012, especially with all the headaches they had at the start of this gen. Keep in mind that to release a console in 2012, developers must start working on design and planning in 2010 for launch titles.

knew it was coming in 04 there were rumors all over gaming mags, despite halo 2 coming out, i think the killing off of the original box was more of a surprise then the 360 coming out. 

ive said this many times if any of them release before 2012 there will be backlash that would most likely lead to a crash this will not only come from the general buying public, but devs, whos asset libraries will be devalued. it would not be good for the industry right now.

we are in actually a pretty good place for all three with software sales being what they are sometime next year all three should put up proffits and continue to do so till the end of the generation. sony will be the last to post profits form its game division, and depending on how many units they move form now until the cut (march earliest), software could even offset a small loss per console basis.

other things that work against the launch are the recession that we are told we are in. the much more real slide of the euro and most world monies against the yen 

on top of that there  currently on going  major revisions in board and ram design the like of which havent been seen since the mid 90s, this shift should be more defined by 2012 with techs less risky. it also gives time for ISPs to be upgraded and allow for smoother download of full games which is something devs want to kill the resale market (though rental of the game from a download is most likely a devs wet dream rentals on music and games make fortunes)

honestly the only one that could benifit from ending early is nintendo, since they have traditionaly made a profit out of the gate, making people upgrade would just be more cash for them, but killing a cash cow (the wii) is always dangerous