Personnaly I can't wait until Heavy Rain comes out as I loved Indigo Prophecy(Farenheit), but I think Alan Wake will sell better because Indigo Prophecy sold 700,000 across three platforms according to the Quantam Dream site. I'm assuming that Heavy Rain will sell around that much or maybe even less.

As much as I love games like these and have a lot of them on pc.  I know that i'm really in the minority of people who love these type of games.  My sale expectation for these type of game on console are somewhere low to medium range.  I'm just trying to be realistic and not delude myself.

i say 1st week goes to Alan wake but lifetime depends on Sony marketing in Europe.

lol, Finland ain't cheap. The salaries and GNP are among the absolute highest in the West. You must have mixed it up with Poland or New Zeeland or something.

So dev cost on an individual basis is the same as usual for Alan Wake. Remedy is a small team, but they say that a lot of stuff like artist work is outsourced (I recall to India or Singapore?). So with a dev time of almost 5 years AW will probably have cost over $20 million to develop.
(an average of 30 guys over 5 years x $100,000 = $15 million + outsourcing costs)

It's hard to tell at this point, but for now I'll go with Alan Wake. It is on a larger userbase, and appears to be less niche.

In the end, though, it will all come down to advertising and quality. We don't know which game will win in either department, although judging by Microsoft's track record, Alan Wake's advertising will be much better than Heavy Rain's.