I know this thread might turn out to be controversial but i do want to see are there any members on this forum that do believe that The Conduit can outsell Sony's blockbuster, i think this could be an interesting debate.

Introduction:

The Conduit, First announced in 2007 is a first person shooter coming out on the Nintendo Wii console in Spring 2009, developers have created brand new Quantum3 engine, designed to push the graphical capabilities of the Wii to maximum allowing visual effects for which the HD consoles have been more known for.

It also features advanced Multiplayed mode(compared to other Wii titles) which certainly plays to its strenght, being one of the few Wii games heavily relying on this mode. Overall the previews have been very positive and all the gaming media seem to be looking forward to HVS title, also forums across internet seemed to be filled with anticipation, game will be published by SEGA one of the biggest publishers in the World that have promised big media campaign, and was endorsed by Nintendo as a game they want to see on their platform. Conduit remains one of the most anticipated Wii games in 2009.

Similar games on the platform (Sales): Red Steel (1m) , Call of Duty:WaW (600k), Medal of Honour: Heroes 2 (500k)

Killzone 2, was announced in 2005 during E3 with great trailer, first person shooter exclusive to Sony Playstation 3, developed by Guerilla Games and published by SCE, set to release in February 2009. One of the most striking aspects of the game is its gorgeous graphics that by many have been described as the best ever seen on a Home console. Killzone 2 offers also very entertaining online mode up to 64 players.

Game have arleady been reviewed and preview by  Gaming media receiving great results and being described as one of the most entertaining shooters ever, Playstation owners for months have been egearly awaiting release of the title, which have  been seen as one of the biggest games of the 2009.

Similar games on the platform (Sales) Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (3.97m), Ressitance Fall of Man (3.49m), Ressitance 2 (1.29), Call of Duty: WaW (2.62)

What can/will influence sales:

Conduit:

If HVS really delivers a mind blowing Wii fps game (which is connected to good reviews to certain extent), it has a chance of becoming a brand on the Wii, a shooter that will be one of the big names on the console, something that all gamers and those that less identify themselves with gaming will be willing to buy and try out, and good online can only broaden the appeal of the game.

Advertising, SEGA have said that the Conduit is one of their biggest titles and they will focus on advertising this game giving it big budget, it will be first Wii exclusive shooter/3rd party title to recieve such big push from the publisher, it has a chance of setting standard for other games heading to the platform in the future and attract those that have never desired to play fps's on the Wii.

Conduit is a first big shooter heading to the Nintendo console this generation, WaW is there but its a game inferior to its HD counterparts that have simply less to offer to the gamers. There havent been a huge FPS game yet, and since it is the most popular genre in gaming can SEGA and HVS nail it? And fill the gap that many gamers feel that exist in Wii's library?

Userbase can play vital role in performance of this title Wii will likely to be over 50 milion when this title is released, compared to PS3 wchich will be around 30milion behind at the same time, this gives The Conduit chance of performing well for weeks after its release and catering new and new people within the userbase, Wii games tend not to be very front loaded, but legs do carry them into higher sales can Conduit follow this trend?

Gamers on the Wii, those who buy most games, those who see gaming as their hobby have been very supportive of the title, like no other 3rd party game before the Conduit have been hyped for months by many Wii owners and enthusiast, which shows that this game have arleady conquered the hearts of the "Hardcore", and with such high userbase there are plenty of gamers that want this game arleady.

Killzone 2

If Guerilla delivers (we will find out soon) Killzone 2 will become one of the biggest, and best FPS's this generation that have been in development for months yet have been able to create something unique. Great shooters have history of good performances on HD consoles and Killzone would be no different, if game live ups to expectations it should become an instant hit like other games before it.

"Hardcore" Userbase, there are plenty of big games on the Playstation 3 that have performed well and the userbase (significantly lower then the Wii) is very committed to gamin Killzone 2 as one of the biggest games coming to the platform this year should follow the trend, and become a milion seller within a week or two, and continue to sell well in first few weeks. HD consoles tend to have more front loaded sales, can Killzone 2 develop legs and continue steadily after weeks pass on? If it does it should become one of the top PS3 sellers.

Hype, no PS3 exclusive have been hyped in last few years like Killzone 2, many have arleady said that this will be one of the titles defining the PS3, its saviour from financial uncertainty that troubled launch years have caused.  The great graphics have only increased the focus that the game have been receiving since its announcment back in 2005. This solely should almost guarantee the commercial success of Sony 1st party title, why would gamers after so many years simply do not buy this title?

Price Cut/ Bundling, PS3 is selling steadily, yet its being outsold by both Wii and the Xbox 360, many have predicted that soon Sony will decide to slash the price of its product down to 299$ to increase sales and interest in the console. Killzone 2 will definately be bundled with PS3 like every other big game on the platform, therefore this itself could increase game sales, but possible price-cut might have a really big impact on a performance of this title if public interest in Playstation reappears.

My Personal Opinion:

Overall i am sure that both of those games will be great and will be a commercial hits, a blockbusters that will recieve high sales. I am a Wii owner but i am also a realist and even when i believe that Conduit will have high sales (at least 2m) i dont think there is much chance it can outsell Killzone 2 which have been hailed as the new king of the FPS's, even when all the positive variables are taken into the account Killzone 2 still should outsel the Conduit, but maybe i am wrong who knows?

(this is my longest post)

Unless the Conduit can get very good reviews and has a terrific advertising campaign, I don't think it stands a chance against K2. If LBP, a 2D platformer, can generate 1.5 million on it's hype, then Killzone will easily crush that.
So, what you said in your summary. Unless Wii fans are really, really starved for a good FPS.

I don't think it can outsell KZ2, but I do think it will sell 1m to 1.5m, and if it really is good I believe it could hit 2m.

I think KZ2 will hit 2m even it gets a review score of 70.

I don't think so.  I think Killzone 2 should sell 2-3 million copies worldwide.  I just don't think the Wii userbase is meant to sell 2-3 million copies of a FPS.  2-3 million copies is nothing for the wii, but I just don't think the audience is right for a FPS to sell those types of #'s on the wii.

I'm gonna say killzone 2 baby! It's on now!

Hypothetically, yet it can. It's on the Wii and KZ2 is on the PS3. In reality though it won't happen because the Conduit will never see the advertising budget necessary to make it happen. Also it might be garbage. Killzone 2 can sell regardless of whether it's garbage or not because it won't require good word of mouth, just a frontloaded week or two.

only if KZ2 bombs for some reason. Don't forget the last exclusive shooter on Wii was the launch title Red Steel. Since then 50 million Wii's have been sold and this is reason enough to chance it for big success.

easily, just by looking at the 46 million people who owns the wii.

The Conduit has absolutely no chance of outselling killzone 2. People can quote me on that, make bets with me, but on my woolly hat will it outsell K2

Theoretically yes.

The way I see it FPS normally do poorly for 2 reasons. The Wii versions are gimped compared to the HD versions and not just in graphics. Smaller levels, altered game play.... The other reason is that there are just not a lot of Wii exclusive shooters to create a thriving FPS Wii community.

So even if The Conduit turns out to be a stellar game it has an uphill battle. The Conduit will almost single handedly creating a viable Wii FPS community. To do that it's going to have to be better than the Halo series in game play and features. If it does do it however, it will be set some incredible Halo'esque numbers. Will it, I doubt it.

Killzone2 does have a problem. It doesn't have the userbase of the PS2 or the Wii. So it has less of a userbase to make sales from. In the end I suspect KZ2 will receive some of the better current FPS numbers on the PS3. FPS are such a niche type game that I suspect we already can tally how many PS3 FPS players are out there.

So I do believe it does have a chance. Just not much of one.