Let's put it like this.

Say the ps3 is breaking even right now and 50 people buy it each week.

A $100 price cut doubles sales to 100/week, sony now lose 100,000  each week.

(Now) Everyone who bought that console that week would have to buy 12 third party games (assuming sony makes $8 royalty on each game) or about 3 or 4 first party games (at full price) before they reach the pre-price cut breaking even point. You see sony does not want software sale to mearly make up the hardware losses, they actually want to profit. $100 is a hell of a lot to make up in software sales.

Edit: Remember, it's not just the people who choose to buy a ps3 because of the reduced price that have to make up the $100 in expenses, it's the people who would have bought the ps3 at the higher price point also.

LOL at least 2.5 million sales from Final fantasy are from japan. and those are the "bad" ff X-2 and 12.

also there is FF13 Versus by tetsuya nomura. and GT5 which is huge.

FF13 is confirmed for a Q4 2009 release in Japan I think. And if the PS3 does have a price cut or slimline model around or before FF13's release, it's going to see such a ridiculous increase in sales. As for GT 5 & GOW 3- I think 1 of them will release this year, but probably not both. I imagine Sony will want one of them for their holiday lineup and the other one to start off 2010, as they're using Killzone 2 to start off 2009.

Sony will come back, I know it.

Why are Sony fans so obsessed about PS3 coming back on the top? Seriously everyday we read threads about a magical comeback, why does it really matter?

I don't understand why everyone says the Wii is uncatchable by either the 360 or the PS3. The Wii has sold 45 million consoles but at some point the craze has to slow down with it. 45 million to 21 and 28 million isn't so far ahead that it couldn't be caught still. If public perception of it starts to become a console lacking games then maybe the other 2 could make up some real ground against it. Even though when some games come out and a price drop happens with it the sales would spike back up again.

I think by the time the PS3 and Wii are done being produced the PS3 will be ahead. 360 in 3rd. Just my opinion.

A first party game will earn Sony something like $30-40, a third party game $8.
So basically to make up for that $100 everyone buying the console at the cheaper price has to buy 3 first party games or 12 third party games EXTRA to make up for that loss. On average this might be the case (although the latest official attach rates we have are around 5.2 and that's for the more hardcore early adaptors) but it will take a while before Sony will profit from a pricecut.

Especially for Sony, that's in financial trouble, a pricecut to make an uncertain profit in the future could be impossible. (Obviously this all depends on Sony's priorities.

You expect 2.5 million PS3's sold for FFXIII?!? I know you don't mean that, but the software sales off FFXIII don't really matter. MGS4 sold about 100k consoles on a 600k game in Japan, so one in six bought the console for MGS. Let's say an even bigger percentage buys a PS3 for FFXIII. 1 in 4 (which is massive); you'll "only" have a console boost of 700k. Definitely good, but on a worldwide scale nothing you'll really notice in the marketshare.

I don't see how FFVSXIII is a system seller, since I doubt there will be many that WILL buy it for Versus, but not for the main game. GT5 is absolutely big, worldwide as well. But in 2010 everything will be decided already. Most potential buyers will already have a current gen console by then.

Hmm. Will the PS3 get a price cut in April?

Will the PS3 get a price cut in 2009?

His sources could be wrong...

A first party game may earn Sony $30, however you also have to pay the developers, marketing, publishing, distribution, etc. for the game itself. Then after that, if there are any profits left then you can count that towards subsidizing the PS3. So it would take a lot more than 3 or 4 first party games to subsidize a $100 price cut alone.