FishyJoe said: I think people are overestimating MP3 a bit. I don't see the crazy, fanatical interest for this game.

I have to agree here. I think alot of people are so excited for prime that they are hyping it into a killer app type of game, and it never has been that. It doesnt move substantial consoles and its lucky to get a million sold. These predictions have got to come back down to reality. Metroid moving half a million right off the bat would be insane for that franchise.

 

But then again I can understand, expecially after watching Mario party 8 lay waste to everything out of nowhere in all 3 major markets.

I think Galaxy will outsell Brawl, if not initially, definitely in the long term. Mario is the biggest video game franchise in the world and it appeals to everyone, no matter the age, and alot of parents can identify with it so they know what it's all about.

Metroid will be a big hit in Europe and the US. Japan isn't big on FPS games and I honestly don't see the fascination with the Metroid series but that's just me.

SSBB will be huge either way, but if it does come with online.. I think it's pretty much a wrap on the holiday season. It does concern me though.. Nintendo is releasing these huge games all in 2007.. aside from Wii Fit and Mario Kart, what else do they have planned? Another Mario RPG title? Another Zelda title? It really has me curious because to do what they're doing right now, they must be pretty damn confident in next year.

With that said:

Super Mario Galaxy: 335k
Metroid Prime: 225k
Super Smash Brothers Brawl: 315k

Xyrax said: FishyJoe said: I think people are overestimating MP3 a bit. I don't see the crazy, fanatical interest for this game. I have to agree here. I think alot of people are so excited for prime that they are hyping it into a killer app type of game, and it never has been that. It doesnt move substantial consoles and its lucky to get a million sold. These predictions have got to come back down to reality. Metroid moving half a million right off the bat would be insane for that franchise.   But then again I can understand, expecially after watching Mario party 8 lay waste to everything out of nowhere in all 3 major markets.

I was with you until the bolded part. A million should be cleared rather easily, but two million is where it gets tricky. 

I think Metroid could pull 2 million without a problem if it gets good scores.

diegomoroco777 said: Total smash sales in USA were of 4 million I think for Melee. With the extra populatiry, I expect at least 750k first week for Smash. 250k for Metroid. 500K for Mario

 

I believe it still holds true that Melee is also the only Gamecube game to reach 1 million sales in Japan. It does work rather well as a game that both casual and hardcore gamers can enjoy. I've said I won't buy the game if there is no online but the chances of me actually being able to hold true to that statement are unlikely. I played Melee more than any other GC game and the original is basically how I got back into gaming.

like stof said Brawl will have a december realese and a lots of people will buy that Brawl will have at least 2.25 millionby the end of december and will still doing good for a very long time to Galaxy I think will have a 600k first week and will have strong sales for a very long time and probely 2 million bu the end of the year I expext wii to have a very strong holiday season

I would doubt that because I think there will be no 1 million games on the market the first week.

FishyJoe said: I think people are overestimating MP3 a bit. I don't see the crazy, fanatical interest for this game. I don't really know how Galaxy and Brawl will do on the first week. It doesn't really matter because Nintendo games tend to have very good legs. So even if the numbers seem low for the first week, sales can continue for months and years.

 550k too high?  if mario party can sell 300k... surely with a game as front loaded as metroid it should do better than 300k.

 oh well, we'll see.  i'll be disapointed it's lower than 400k first week, let me just put it that way.  anyway, it should sell 1.3 mln by the end of year, with lifetime sales in the 2.2 mln range, again, in the US.

Desroko said: Xyrax said: FishyJoe said: I think people are overestimating MP3 a bit. I don't see the crazy, fanatical interest for this game. I have to agree here. I think alot of people are so excited for prime that they are hyping it into a killer app type of game, and it never has been that. It doesnt move substantial consoles and its lucky to get a million sold. These predictions have got to come back down to reality. Metroid moving half a million right off the bat would be insane for that franchise.   But then again I can understand, expecially after watching Mario party 8 lay waste to everything out of nowhere in all 3 major markets. I was with you until the bolded part. A million should be cleared rather easily, but two million is where it gets tricky.

I agree with you for lifetime, but the thread is about 1st week sales not lifetime. So when people are here predicting 1 and 2m for metroid first week Im just saying the past metroid games are good if they manage to reach 1m lifetime, let alone 1 week.

hmm, somehow we went from SSBB to Metroid. probably because Metroid is almost here...

anyhow, we'll know just how many "core" gamers bought the Wii when metroid comes out--metroid sales will be the DEFINING measure!